It was no Brady, no Gronk, no problem for the New England Patriots in their opener. Backup signal-caller Jimmy Garoppolo and the rest of the cast went to Arizona and shocked the Cardinals as nine-point underdogs.
Now, even without Tom Brady, who still has three games remaining of his Deflategate suspension, the Patriots are sizable favorites against the Miami Dolphins in Week 2 of the regular season. MIami nearly upset the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1 and now will hit the road again to try to knock off another expected contender.
This contest in Week 2 of the regular season will go down Sunday, September 18, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Dolphins +6.5
Patriots -6.5
Over/Under 41.5
Odds Analysis
After such an impressive opening-night win, the money is coming in heavily on the Patriots. However, that could be an overreaction. Knocking off an opponent by a touchdown or more with a backup quarterback is a tall task, even with the home field advantage and Bill Belichick in the fold.
The scoring total is expectedly low as both teams have solid defenses and question marks on offense. This one could be a slugfest.
Injury Report
Rob Gronkowski -- The Patriots’ superstar tight end didn’t make the trip to Arizona because of a hamstring injury, and his availability for this contest is unknown. New England fared OK without him in the opener, but the return of Gronk would be a huge boost.
Mario Williams -- The Dolphins’ new defensive end is in the concussion protocol. He could be a key piece rushing Garoppolo but it’s unclear if he will be able to play in this contest.
Mike Pouncey -- Miami’s talented center has been out with a hip injury and is expected to miss this contest. The Dolphins offense struggled in the opener and it hurts not having the leader of the offensive line.
Coaching Angle
New Dolphins head man Adam Gase is known for his offensive ingenuity, but couldn’t get untracked in a 12-10 loss to the Seahawks in Week 1. Seattle has one of the best defenses in the NFL, but only 10 points isn’t going to cut it.
The Patriots performed well defensively against the high-powered Cardinals offense, and Belichick will aim to devise a game plan to have more success.
From a pure personnel standpoint, a Patriots team missing Brady and Gronkowski doesn’t have much more talent than the Dolphins. But Belichick showed his genius in the opener and that’s why this spread is so high.
Gase will go back to the drawing board and try to make quarterback Ryan Tannehill feel more comfortable in this one. If the passing game can get going, Miami will have a shot at the upset.
Free ATS Pick
The Patriots are riding high after knocking off the Cardinals in the opener. Garoppolo looked calm, cool and collected and Julian Edelman proved to be a great safety valve for him. New England will likely stick to the game plan where they put Garoppolo in advantageous positions and allow for the defense to lead the way.
The Dolphins’ defensive line was dominant in its opener, and if it can wreak havoc on Garoppolo, that could help keep the Dolphins in the game.
This spread seems way too high. The Patriots are good, but they will be missing Brady and possibly Gronkowski. While it’s likely they win the game, if the line creeps to an even seven-point spread it’s a no-brainer to choose the Dolphins.
Miami just went toe-to-toe with a fully stocked Seahawks team and should be able to hang with the Brady-less Patriots. The scoring total is low but even so, the “under” looks like the right pick as there won’t be a ton of chunk plays in this one.
NFL Odds: Patriots 20, Dolphins 17
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