Early reports suggest Garoppolo is likely to miss Week 3 against the Houston Texans, and it could be Jacoby Brissett under center. That change would lead to a big swing in the odds, possibly making the Texans the road favorite in this contest.
Watch this regular season Week 3 matchup live on Thursday, September 22, 2016, at 8:25 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.
Odds Analysis
Nothing can be cemented until the Patriots’ quarterback situation is ironed out. Brissett is inexperienced, and while he wasn’t horrible in relief against Miami, he isn’t the same caliber of player as Garoppolo.
The over-under could be low since the Patriots will have quarterback issues. Both defenses could finish the season in the top-10, so every point could mean something in this AFC showdown.
Injury Report
Jimmy Garoppolo -- The injury happened when he was hit by Dolphins linebacker Kiko Alonso in the second quarter. Garoppolo was 18-of-27 for 234 yards passing and three touchdowns in less than a half of work. He was filling in for Brady, who is suspended for the first four games of the season for his role in the Deflategate scandal.
Braxton Miller -- The Texans’ rookie wideout hurt his hamstring in the Week 2 win over the Chiefs and didn’t return. The injury doesn’t seem too concerning, but with only a few days in between games he could miss this contest. It’s not a huge deal as DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller have settled in as the top two targets for Brock Osweiler.
Matchup to Watch
Texans’ pass rush against Patriots’ offensive line -- Superstar defensive end J.J. Watt leads a ferocious Houston defensive line. If Brissett is in the game, there’s no doubt the Texans will do everything in their power to pressure him into bad decisions.
Watt will lead the way and he should be able to wreak havoc, while Jadeveon Clowney and the rest of the players on the Houston front will aim to pitch in. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels does a good job of designing plays to get the ball out of his quarterback’s hand quickly, and that will be paramount in this one.
New England will likely try to run the ball a lot behind LeGarrette Blount, but there will be times when Brissett is forced to drop back and throw. Giving him a clean pocket could mean the difference between success and failure for the Patriots offense.
Free ATS Pick
While there has been no official word, this game is certainly trending toward a close-to-full-strength Texans team against an undermanned Patriots squad. If Garoppolo is out, then it really changes the dynamic.
New England has looked fantastic in its first two games, dispatching the Cardinals and Dolphins. It plays this one at home and would likely have been favored if Garoppolo was starting, but that doesn’t seem like it is going to be the case.
While the Patriots boast the smartest coach in football in Bill Belichick, at some points the quarterback hits will take their toll. Expect the Texans defense to excel in this showdown and help Houston come away with the win.
The Texans are 2-0 on the season and looking good on defense. Osweiler has had his moments, and another win would really set up the team well moving forward. Houston catches a break with New England’s quarterback uncertainty and should be able to take advantage.
NFL Odds: Texans 23, Patriots 13
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