Before the season began and Tom Brady was staring at a four-game suspension to open the year, the New England Patriots were unsure of what the first quarter held in store. There was time to prep Jimmy Garoppolo for the starting gig during the preseason and the kid came through. However, that wasn’t the case for Jacoby Brissett, and still the Pats rolled. Splitting their first four games without Brady looked like a best-case scenario, Now the Pats have a chance to go unbeaten in that stretch if they can knock off the Buffalo Bills in Week 4.
This contest in Week 4 of the regular season will go down Sunday, October 2, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.
Odds Analysis
While the quarterback situation in New England gets worked out in the final week of the Brady suspension, the line has yet to hit the board. The Pats haven’t named a starter as both Garoppolo and Brissett are dealing with injuries, but according to reports, at least one of the two, and maybe both, will be ready to play on Sunday. Given New England’s success at home against the Bills, where the Pats are 14-1 SU and 8-6-1 ATS in the last 15 games, all as the favored team, expect more of the same.
Injury Report
Jimmy Garoppolo – The Patriots’ quarterback situation is in a state of flux for at least another week as Brady completes his four-game suspension. Garoppolo sat out last week with a bruised shoulder and Brissett filled in admirably. However, he sustained an injury to his throwing thumb and New England will enter its AFC East battle with Buffalo without a healthy quarterback on its roster. Brissett did finish off Thursday’s win over Houston despite his injury, but the Pats will be content with running the football.
Sammy Watkins – Buffalo was without its top receiver last week and the passing game suffered. The good news for the Bills is that they didn’t need him. That will be a different story when they face the Patriots. With Watkins sidelined with a bad foot, the Bills managed just 88 net passing yards against the Cardinals, yet they came away with a 33-18 victory. It’s hard to imagine Watkins being at full strength after dealing with a bum foot throughout training camp and into the regular season.
Matchup to Watch
The Bills flustered Carson Palmer and the Cardinals on Sunday to post their first win of the season. Arizona was, according to Rex Ryan, exactly the opponent Buffalo needed to pull out of its funk. And while it likely saved Ryan from being ejected off the hot seat, it was a victory that was far from perfect. Dropping to 0-3 would have put Buffalo off the map in the AFC and the team responded in what was as close to a must-win situation as a team could get. And it was huge because now the Bills head into their own house of horrors.
Ryan preaches defense and his players got after Palmer with three sacks and seven quarterback hits overall. It was the type of game the Bills needed in order to offset another shaky offensive performance. The D was brilliant in stopping an explosive Cardinals group. Palmer was hurried into several bad throws with a variety of blitz packages offered up. A pair of fourth quarter interceptions by Stephon Gilmore, four picks total, and five takeaways was an indication of just how well the Bills performed on defense. To have success against New England, the Bills will have to slow down LeGarrette Blount and force the Pats to throw the ball. If not, it could be another long day in Foxboro for Rex and his boys.
Free ATS Pick
No matter who is quarterbacking the team, the Patriots just continue to roll. Garoppolo did a nice job in his first two starts and the team rallied around rookie Brissett last week, pitching a shutout at the Texans. With all the attention paid to the Deflategate saga and the Pats’ quarterback situation, one overlooked aspect of the team has been its defense.
The unit needed to step up last week with Brissett getting the start and it did, hammering Brock Osweiler and Houston. But Brissett did his job and the Pats continued to win. New England has had all kinds of success against the Bills at home and against Ryan’s team over the years, and regardless of who plays quarterback, I like the Pats to continue their impressive start.
Buffalo got a lot of help from Arizona in its win and the Pats just don’t hurt themselves. They force teams to beat them and the Bills are lacking efficiency in the passing game. Ryan has been able to keep his team in the games with each of the last three in Foxboro decided by a single score. We could see another close one with the outcome all too familiar for Rex.
NFL Odds: Patriots 24, Bills 18
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