Maybe the Dallas Cowboys starting quarterback job won’t be waiting for Tony Romo when he’s ready to return. The emergence of fourth-round draft pick Dak Prescott has given the Boys a dual-threat option at the position and has rejuvenated the team that even the suspect defense is getting into the act. Fans of the San Francisco 49ers can only dream about what might be as they continue to watch Blaine Gabbert stumble under center. We’ll see who gets the better of the head-to-head matchup in Week 4.
This matchup in Week 4 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, October 2, 2016, at 4:25 p.m. ET at Levi’s Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Dallas Cowboys -3
San Francisco 49ers +3
Over/Under 45.5
Odds Analysis
The 49ers are ecstatic to be home after two terrible beatdowns on the road, and never underestimate the power of the home field advantage. San Francisco was awful last year yet still went 4-4 SU and 5-2 ATS at Levi’s Stadium. And we know what happened against Los Angeles in the opener, and that’s why the line stands at San Francisco +3 with no movement since hitting the board. It looks like the oddsmakers nailed this spread.
Injury Report
La’el Collins – A key member of the Cowboys studly offensive line will be lost for several weeks with a torn ligament in his foot. Collins rapidly ascended the depth chart and moved into a starting role midway through last season. He’s a big reason why Dallas’ offensive line was rated the best in the NFL. His loss won’t decimate the group with former starter Ronald Leary ready to step in, but it does significantly weaken the depth and another injury down the road could create a domino effect.
Vance McDonald – The 49ers have the NFL’s 30th ranked pass offense and the group took a hit when McDonald left last game with a hip injury. McDonald is the team’s third leading receiver with a team-best two scoring grabs. His loss will definitely impact an already weak passing game.
Key Stat
When he has the tools to run his up-tempo, no-huddle offense, Chip Kelly is one of the best at it. But with the Niners it’s like trying to jam a square peg in a round hole. San Francisco doesn’t have a mobile quick quarterback, the backfield is thin behind Carlos Hyde, and outside of Torrey Smith, the receivers are iffy. But Kelly continues to run his tempo game and the defense ends up paying the price when the Niners can’t convert third downs and extend drives.
Entering Sunday’s game in Seattle, the Niners had gone three-and-out on 50 percent of their possessions. The numbers proved prophetic against the Seahawks as six of their 12 drives lasted three plays or fewer. The obvious problem is a failure to convert on third-down and the Niners went more than three quarters before getting their first conversion. For the game they were 4 of 15 on third down with all conversions coming with the game out of reach. That happens against the Seattle defense, but it’s been a season-long problem. S.F. has converted just 34.8 percent on third down to rank near the bottom of the NFL standings.
Free ATS Pick
Prescott is exactly the type of quarterback that has given the Niners’ defense fits this season. Players who can move around in the pocket and extend plays have been San Francisco’s kryptonite. Cam Newton helped shred them for 46 points in a big Week 2 Carolina victory and Russell Wilson staked Seattle to 30-3 lead before leaving with an injury.
What’s more, Prescott has all the weapons to be successful. Zeke Elliott is a workhorse back, Dez Bryant is a gifted receiver, and the O-line is the best in the game. Prescott was practically thrown into a no-lose situation and he certainly ran with the opportunity. More impressive is that the Cowboys have gotten better and more productive in each game. They remedied the problem from Week 1 and used a fourth quarter drive against Washington for a victory in Week 2. Last week they absolutely manhandled the Bears. If the 49ers continue to fail extending drives, the defense will get pushed around again, leaving the Boys to cover a very manageable 3-point spread.
NFL Odds: Cowboys 28, 49ers 17
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