The Denver Broncos won the Super Bowl last season with a magnificent defense and average quarterback play. They still have a magnificent defense and they may have found an upgrade in the quarterback area with the emergence of Trevor Siemian, who looked unflappable in his first road start leading Denver to a big win over AFC contender Cincinnati. It’s still early and Siemian has a long way to go before being mentioned with Peyton Manning. He gets another shot against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4.
This contest in Week 4 of the regular season will go down Sunday, October 2, 2016, at 4:05 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Denver Broncos -3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
Over/Under 44
Odds Analysis
Early money jumped all over the Broncos at -3 to open and the line could move before it’s all said and done. However, the Broncos are playing on the road for the second straight week with a long trip involved and that could keep the spread at a reasonable number. Both teams have exhibited big play offenses and opportunistic defenses that have cashed the over a combined five times in six games. Surprisingly, the Broncos are 3-0 on the over and the total has already dropped a half-point.
Injury Report
Doug Martin – with their leading rusher sidelined, the Bucs struggled running the football against the Rams, managing just 83 yards on 22 attempts. Charles Sims was the replacement back and tallied 55 yards on 13 carries, however 23 of those yards came on one carry. The lack of a run game was evident in the final minutes when the Bucs had a chance to score the winning touchdown. With first down at L.A.s 15, Jameis Winston threw three incomplete passes and was caught from behind short of the goal line on fourth down. Tampa kept a timeout in its pocket and could have used Martin in that situation.
Player to Watch
The Broncos may have found their quarterback, and he isn’t the team’s top draft pick. Many felt that Siemian was just keeping the seat warm until Paxton Lynch was ready, but the second-year player who was about to give up playing the game has been the storyline of Denver’s undefeated start. Of course, Denver still has the shutdown defense and that takes a lot of pressure of the quarterback to win games, but Siemian had a coming out party Sunday in Cincinnati. In his first road start, Siemian looked like a poised veteran facing one of the AFC’s best in a hostile environment.
With the game hanging in the balance in the fourth quarter, Siemian directed the winning touchdown drive by tossing his third scoring pass of the game. He would add another a little later for the icing on the Broncos’ cake. With his performance Siemian became just the third Denver quarterback to throw four touchdowns passes without an interception in a road game. He faces a Bucs defense that was torched by big plays from the Rams and surrendered 30 points to a team that hadn’t scored a touchdown in its first two games.
Free ATS Pick
The Bucs dropped a game they really needed by falling to the Rams, and there were some questionable moves by rookie coach Dirk Koetter. Most notably was not using a timeout when the team was in L.A. territory late in the game. With games coming up against Denver and Carolina, the Super Bowl 50 participants, Tampa is looking at a 1-4 record heading into its bye week. Winston continues to show flashes of brilliance, but he also continues to make errors that cost his team.
With Martin unlikely to play and the run game suffering, more pressure will be put on Winston to direct the offense and he’s going against one of, if not the best defense in the league. I like the Bucs, but I think they are overmatched in this one. Still, playing at home and facing the defending champs should inspire them enough to keep the game close. But it’s hard to pick against Denver and the 3-point line.
NFL Odds: Broncos 26, Buccaneers 18
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