After barely squeaking by the bottom team in the AFC North, the Miami Dolphins hit the road in Week 4 to play against one of the top teams in that division. The Fins got Adam Gase his first victory, but it was a close call in overtime. Now they look for a second straight win when they take on a hungry Cincinnati Bengals team that was embarrassed in its home opener. The Bengals haven’t had a losing record through their first three games since 2011 and that year they rattled off five straight wins after opening 1-2.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 4 game is set for Thursday, September 29, 2016, at 8:25 p.m. ET at Paul Brown Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Miami Dolphins +7
Cincinnati Bengals -7
Over/Under 44
Odds Analysis
The line is fairly steep by NFL standards, but given how the Dolphins were a missed field goal away from losing outright as a 10-point favorite, not surprising. Cincinnati has been favored by at least seven points at home in 11 games since 2012 and is 9-1-1 SU and 6-3-2 ATS. With a few key players on the verge of returning to the lineup, it’s possible the spread could go even higher by kickoff.
Injury Report
Anthony Steen – Miami’s backup center left Sunday’s game early in the fourth quarter with an ankle injury and didn’t return. He was starting in place of Mike Pouncey, who missed his third straight game with a hip problem. The Dolphins turned to third-stringer Kraig Urbik to finish the contest. This could be an area of concern against the Bengals, who boast one of the best defensive fronts in football.
Vontaze Burfict – The Bengals linebacker has completed his three-game suspension and is expected to be in the lineup for Thursday’s game. Burfict was suspended for safety violations and was missed in the locker room and on the field. His return on a short week will help bolster a defense that was torched by the Broncos’ Trevor Siemian, who threw four touchdown passes in his first career road start.
Matchup to Watch
A big emphasis for the Bengals last week was to run the football effectively and neutralize the potent pass rush of Von Miller and the Broncos. The strategy worked, sort of. While the run game produced the best numbers of the season, Andy Dalton was still sacked four times and the Bengals lost the game. Facing the NFL’s worst run defense, Cincinnati will again attempt to utilize that part of their offense, but this time for a better outcome.
Jeremy Hill had one of his best games with 97 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns on 17 carries as the Bengals amassed 143 yards on the ground against Denver’s strict defensive group. Hill set the tone early with a 50-yard scamper on his third carry and capped off the Bengals’ first drive with a 3-yard touchdown run. Unfortunately the Bengals were unable to sustain the ground success and had to abandon the run for most of the fourth quarter after falling behind. The Dolphins surrendered 169 rushing yards to Cleveland and allow a league-worst 147.3 rush yards per game.
Free ATS Pick
When the starting quarterback is your leading rusher, the ground game is hurting. It’s not like the Dolphins have Michael Vick under center, either. Ryan Tannehill has never been known as a runner or scrambler, so him leading the team with a mere 54 yards gives you an idea of how bad Miami has been running the football. The Dolphins are trying to diversify their offense around Tannehill, but the lack of a run game has negated that. They continue to air it out and it worked in a win over the Browns – barely.
They won’t be so lucky against the Bengals. If Miami can’t run the football, Cincinnati’s front seven will pressure Tannehill to no end. But he’s used to it. Tannehill is the most sacked quarterback in the league over the past few seasons and he keeps coming back for more. The Bengals realize they let one slip away against Denver and will be much sharper on Thursday night. They get their defensive leader back and know this is a game they should win. And they will by covering the spread.
NFL Odds: Bengals 27, Dolphins 14
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