The more things change, the more they stay the same. The New Orleans Saints did a major overhaul to the NFL’s worst defense from 2015 and yet they still give up yards and points at an alarming rate. The San Diego Chargers were decimated by injuries last season and for the third week in a row they lost another key member of their team when Manti Te’o was felled with a season-ender. Drew Brees returns to San Diego when the clubs square off in Week 4.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 4 game is set for Sunday, October 2, 2016, at 4:25 p.m. ET at Qualcomm Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New Orleans Saints +4
San Diego Chargers -4
Over/Under 53.5
Odds Analysis
The over/under is the highest on the board for Week 4 and the number has scared some bettors away from the over, despite two teams that take an optional approach to playing defense. San Diego opened at -4.5 and the line was quickly wagered down a half point. While the Chargers still call San Diego home, they remain in limbo and the fans are apathetic to their plight. That plays a bit into the line.
Injury Report
Kenny Vaccaro – The Saints defense is already the worst in the NFL and losing their starting safety isn’t going to help. Vaccaro missed Monday’s game while he continues to rehab his bad ankle. The Saints are also without top cornerback Delvin Breaux after he had surgery to repair a broken fibula. That’s not good news when facing Philip Rivers and the Chargers passing attack.
Manti Te’o – It happened again to San Diego, a major injury taking out one of the team’s top performers. This time it’s defensive leader Te’o, who sustained an Achilles tear while planting his foot on the turf in Indianapolis. The inside linebacker had become the leader of the defense and the unit will suffer. Rookie Jatavis Brown, who missed most of the preseason with an injury, will take over.
Players to Watch
It’s difficult to remember Drew Brees ever playing for the Chargers, but he did for five seasons after being selected with the No. 1 pick of the second round in the 2001 draft. But his days in San Diego were numbered when the team traded for Rivers in 2004. Two years later, Brees landed in New Orleans and, as they say, the rest is history. Brees’ march to the Hall of Fame began in 2006 when he joined Sean Payton in New Orleans and the numbers reflect just how good he’s been. While the offensive output was more of a systemic approach a few years ago, it’s become more out of necessity recently. With the Saints unable to turnaround a historically bad defense, the offense has to continue to move the football and score points to keep up.
For the most part Brees has done that. He leads the NFL in passing yards with 1,062 and he has eight touchdown passes with just one interception. The total for this matchup is the highest on the board for Week 4 and for good reason. The Saints will chuck the ball over the field, because that’s what they do. Rivers and the Chargers just saw New Orleans get gashed by the Falcons on Monday night and even without two of their top playmakers will try and take advantage of the mismatch.
Free ATS Pick
With a pair of gunslingers squaring off against shaky defenses, this game has shootout written all over it. Brees returns to San Diego as an opposing quarterback for the first time since leaving back in 2006. Rivers has taken over admirably and hasn’t missed a start in his 11 seasons. But this game is much more than just a pair of former teammates facing each other.
The Saints desperately need a win to make something of their season after starting 0-3. The defense appeared to turn a corner in a Week 2 loss to the Giants, but regressed in Monday’s defeat and had a tough time stopping the Falcons. A near-miss in the opener has the Saints wondering what might have been. The Chargers also failed to finish in its two losses and has the same bad taste in their mouth. Traditionally the Saints haven’t done well on the West Coast, but they buck that trend against the lame-duck home team. The fireworks will commence and the teams have a good shot at cashing the over.
NFL Odds: Saints 31, Chargers 28
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