After making the reigning NFL MVP look below average in win over the defending NFC champions, it might be time to include the Minnesota Vikings defense among the best in the league. The Vikings are one of five unbeaten teams through three weeks and they managed to do it without their starting quarterback and all-world running back. So you know it’s not the offense that’s keeping the team propped up. Minnesota looks to go 4-0 for the first time since advancing to the NFC Championship in 2009 when it hosts the New York Giants in Week 4.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 4 game is set for Monday, October 3, 2016, at 8:30 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New York Giants +4
Minnesota Vikings -4
Over/Under 43
Odds Analysis
The home team got plenty of play when the line opened at Minnesota -3.5, pushing the spread up a half point to its current number. The Vikings are a disciplined club under Mike Zimmer and it’s hard to bet against a team that doesn’t commit silly penalties and turn the ball over. And that’s exactly what the Giants are not. I don’t see the spread moving much, but the over/under is another story. The Vikings played below the total in their last two games when the number was at 43.
Injury Report
Shane Vereen – The Giants lost their leading rusher to a triceps injury last week and he could be done for the year. More of a pass-catching specialist out of the backfield, Vereen had 147 yards rushing and a touchdown in three games. He also had eight catches, which is good for fourth on the team. Not only is Vereen a catch-and-run artist, he is also the most skilled back in pass protection, making his loss a double-whammy when facing the best sack defense in the NFL.
Adrian Peterson – Minnesota has the NFL’s worst rushing offense and it likely won’t get any better with Peterson sidelined for a few months with a knee injury. It wasn’t the best of starts to the year for AP, who ran for just 50 yards on 31 carries before getting hurt. But Peterson has a brilliant history and it was just a matter of time before he started clicking. The same can’t be said with Matt Asiata running the football.
Key Stat
The precedent has been set and the Vikings are taking note. Last season the Broncos showed that a defense-first team can win a Super Bowl even with a sub-par offense. And now the Vikings will have to rely even more on their stingy group. Sam Bradford is still getting acquainted with the offense and Peterson, the workhorse of the unit, went down with a knee injury and is out for a few months.
But the defense has been the story of this team through the first three weeks. The Vikings lead the NFL with a plus-eight turnover margin and have forced turnovers on 25 percent of opposing drives. They hounded Cam Newton last week, sacking him eight times, including once for a safety, and intercepted three of his passes. The defense has scored two touchdowns and a safety this season, add a punt return touchdown on special teams and those groups have combined to score as many touchdowns as the offense. Mike Zimmer preaches defense and the gang has responded. Oh yeah, the Vikings also have an NFL-best 15 sacks through the first three weeks.
Free ATS Pick
After pummeling Newton and holding the high-powered Panthers to 306 total yards and 10 points, the Vikings have definitely proven their worth on that side of the football. Minnesota may be even more reliant on its defense than the Broncos were last season when they handed it to Carolina in Super Bowl 50. The unit has shut down every opponent so far this season and has nearly outscored the offense. The Vikes get after the quarterback and excel in creating turnovers. It’s a recipe for success and so far it’s worked.
But with an offense that has difficulty moving the football, there’s no margin for error. If the defense has an off night or suffers a significant injury to a key player, the gap closes and suddenly the Vikings aren’t as dominant. Minnesota won’t sustain that level of success and will eventually come crashing down. New York will hang close with a solid defensive showing of its own, but a costly mistake will prove to be difference in a close game.
NFL Odds: Vikings 20, Giants 17
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