Let’s not hand the AFC South crown to the Houston Texans just yet. Following an embarrassing Thursday night shutout loss, Houston slid down to the rest of the division and now must rebound to stave off the Tennessee Titans in what is a showdown for first place. It’s still early in the season but games within the division are critical and the Texans used a 5-1 record against their South brethren to claim the division title last season. If the Titans are to be contenders, a Week 4 road win against the favored Texans would be a step in the right direction.
This matchup in Week 4 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, October 2, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tennessee Titans +6.5
Houston Texans -6.5
Over/Under 41
Odds Analysis
The Titans are dogs for the fourth straight week and are 1-2 ATS so far. However, their win came outright in Detroit in Week 2 when they were spotted six points. Tennessee has been much better on the road the past two seasons but hasn’t had much success against the Texans at any venue recently and the early money has come in on the home team.
Neither team has proven to be a force offensively and the over/under reflects that. But they have played over the total eight times in their last 11 meetings and the opening total of 41 is relatively low, even for these teams. It’s unlikely the total will move much giving an over bet some value in this one.
Injury Report
Delanie Walker – Tennessee’s passing game was missing its most influential target against the Raiders and the loss was evident. Marcus Mariota had just 214 passing yards and threw two picks without a touchdown against Oakland’s leaky defense. Walker is Mariota’s security blanket and will be needed against the Texans fierce pass rush in the short passing game and as an additional blocker. The team is hopeful Walker can recover from the hamstring injury that’s bothering him.
Matchup to Watch
The Texans are expected to be the class of the AFC South and after the first two weeks of the season it looked that way. But Houston ran into trouble with its Thursday night matchup against New England and looked nothing like the team many thought they were. Sure, the Texans had to fly across the country with only three days to prepare for one of the best teams in the NFL, but it was a contest the Texans were never in and they never found any rhythm offensively or sustained any pressure defensively on a rookie quarterback making his first start.
Even with their 27-0 loss to the Patriots, the Texans are still in the driver’s seat in the division and get their first matchup with an AFC South foe when the Titans visit. Houston knows it laid an egg and Brock Osweiler was the first to admit that not scoring points is on him. With a few extra days of rest following that Thursday debacle and being back at home, the Texans know they must rebound with a stronger performance. Osweiler hasn’t lived up to his healthy free agent contract and has said trying to do too much led to some of the problems. Against a lesser opponent and not in the spotlight, Osweiler will remind Houston as to why they spent so much on him.
Free ATS Pick
I really want to believe that the Titans have turned things around and they are on the verge of becoming relevant in the AFC. But when I start thinking that way, they pull out some garbage like they did on Sunday. At home against a fragile Raiders team was a golden opportunity for Tennessee to take that next step and they fell flat on their behinds. They committed too many turnovers and penalties at key times thwarted drives that could’ve tied or maybe won the game.
I fully expect Houston to bounce back from its dismal performance at New England and be inspired to put that disaster behind them. The Texans have a much better defense than they showed against the Pats and Tennessee couldn’t get much going against an Oakland group that had surrendered over 1,000 yards in its first two games. Mariota has been plagued by turnovers and the Texans are good at creating them. Look for some big plays from Osweiler and his receivers in the passing game to subdue the Titans and cover the spread.
NFL Odds: Texans 28, Titans 20
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