With Andrew Luck recovered from his injury problems that limited his participation last season, the Indianapolis Colts were expected to be a contender in the AFC South. After losing to Jacksonville last week in London, Indy is tied with the Jags at the bottom of the division. It’s still early and Luck is still upright, so there is time for the Colts to make a move. However, it better come quickly and it starts with a Week 5 home contest against the Chicago Bears.
This contest in Week 5 of the regular season will go down Sunday, October 9, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Chicago Bears +4.5
Indianapolis Colts -4.5
Over/Under 47.5
Odds Analysis
With early money on the Colts, the line spiked a half point to Indy -4.5. Both teams are just 1-3 ATS this season and the Colts are getting a cushion as the home team. It won’t be easy for the Colts, who just played in London and were edged by the Jaguars. The Bears aren’t scoring a lot of points and will try to control the pace with their ground attack. If they are successful, the under will carry plenty of value.
Injury Report
Kevin White – The Bears leading pass catcher went down with an ankle injury in the third quarter of Sunday’s game and didn’t return. White missed all of last season but was progressing into the threat the Bears thought they drafted in the first round. His loss will hurt Chicago’s vertical passing game and we’re likely to see more of a conservative approach.
Joe Reitz – Baltimore’s starting guard missed last week’s game with a bad back and his status is unclear. Reitz isn’t the only offensive lineman dealing with injuries as tackle Denzelle Good is recovering from a back injury and center Jonotthan Harrison is out after undergoing an appendectomy. The line was shuffled around last week with rookies Austin Blythe and Joe Haeg starting on the right side.
Player to Watch
Jeremy Langford, the heir apparent to Matt Forte in Chicago, struggled running the football before an ankle injury two weeks ago knocked him out of the lineup. His replacement, Ka’Deem Carey, has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury. Once thought to be a team strength, the backfield was down to its third option in rookie Jordan Howard. After Sunday’s performance, the position appears to be strong once again. Howard got the starting nod against the Lions and became the first back this season to distinguish himself. He ran for 111 yards in the Bears first win of the season and helped the offense control the football.
Howard also has the ability to catch the football, which is important in making the Bears’ offense work. With Howard churning out the yards, Chicago had the ball for over 33 minutes and converted a season-high 23 first downs. The Bears committed to the run and Howard delivered. The game plan took pressure off Brian Hoyer and opened up passing lanes underneath. Hoyer had a nice game completing 28 of 36 passes for 302 yards and did not throw an interception. When the run game works, everything else falls into place for the Bears. It’s only one game, but Howard was just what Chicago needed to run its offense.
Free ATS Pick
The Colts have been ravaged by injuries this season but the defense is getting healthy, and that’s a good sign moving forward. However, the injury bug is now attacking the offensive line and Chuck Pagano was forced last week to start three rookies. The Colts managed just 294 yards of offense and Luck was sacked six times in a loss to the Jaguars, so there are still concerns in Indy. The injuries have been a factor, but they are not the only reason why the Colts are off to their worst start in five years. The team continues to shoot itself in the foot with foolish penalties, dropped passes and missed tackles.
Certainly no fault of Pagano’s but the coach takes the blame and he’s squarely on the hot seat after last week’s loss. The Bears are in no position to become a contender soon, but they found a formula that worked in a win over the Lions, shutting down a potent passing attack by controlling the football with a punishing ground game. If Chicago can do the same against the Colts, a road upset is in the making.
NFL Odds: Bears 22, Colts 20
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