For the first time in two years the Dallas Cowboys have won three consecutive games, and they’re doing it with rookie Dak Prescott running the show. This is definitely a different Dallas team. Last year without starter Tony Romo, the Boys couldn’t do anything right and went 1-11 behind a trio of backups. Maybe Prescott isn’t the backup when Romo is ready to return, but he’s certainly doing the job as the starter now. Dallas will have a stiff challenge to keep its streak alive in Week 5 when it hosts the Cincinnati Bengals.
This matchup in Week 5 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, October 9, 2016, at 4:25 p.m. ET at ATT Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cincinnati Bengals +1
Dallas Cowboys -1
Over/Under 45.5
Odds Analysis
Opening as a 1-point underdog, the Bengals have seen a majority of the action on the early wagering. It’s hard to be convinced that the Cowboys are the better team in this one, but the home field edge plays slightly into the early line. Taking Cincinnati with a point is a gift and bettors would be wise to get in fast before the line shifts, which I think it will.
Injury Report
Dre Kirkpatrick – Missed the last game and is doubtful to play against the Cowboys with a hamstring injury. Not only is Kirkpatrick a supreme cover corner, he’s also a solid run defender which would be missed in defending the Cowboys. When Kirkpatrick first got injured against the Broncos in Week 3, Trevor Siemian threw four touchdown passes against the Bengals secondary.
Dez Bryant – The Cowboys’ top receiver didn’t play against San Francisco and could miss more time with a knee injury. Dallas was able to beat the 49ers without Bryant, but one play in particular was a sign that the team will miss him. Brice Butler was unable to hold onto a fade in the end zone that cost Dallas six points. It was a play Bryant makes every time.
Key Stat
Cincinnati’s inability to punch the ball into the end zone didn’t hurt during its 22-7 win over Miami. The Bengals were able to maneuver the ball efficiently between the 20 yard lines, amassing 362 yards of offense against the Dolphins, but drives of 54, 80 and 85 yards ended in Mike Nugent field goals and the struggles inside the red zone could come back to haunt the Bengals if that situation doesn’t improve. Cincinnati converted a touchdown on one of its three trips inside the red zone last Thursday and has scored four touchdowns on its 13 red zone trips this season to rank 29th in the league.
That percentage is likely to change when Tyler Eifert returns to the lineup, which could be as early as this week. Eifert hasn’t played while recovering from off-season ankle surgery, but he was Andy Dalton’s favorite red zone target last season, catching 13 touchdown passes. The Bengals were the fifth-ranked team in the NFL last season in red zone touchdown efficiency, so they know how to stick the football in the end zone when given the chance. With a resurgent run game and Eifert due back soon, that number could change quickly.
Free ATS Pick
To prove they’re back, the Cowboys did what they had to do over a fairly cushy opening part of the schedule. The Giants are an improved team and the Redskins won the NFC East last season, but they aren’t among the elite in the league. Chicago and San Francisco were winnable games and Dallas took care of business. So, while the Boys are 3-1, they’ve had the benefit of a soft schedule and took advantage.
Now things heat up for them. The Bengals are among the elite, play in a division that’s noted for smash-mouth football, and have a defense that can create havoc for Prescott. While the Cowboys keep patting themselves on the back for their start, Cincinnati is built for the long haul. The Bengals had a mini-bye after dismantling Miami last Thursday and are focused on shutting down Prescott and Elliott. While the rookie quarterback has been nearly flawless, he hasn’t faced a D as solid as Cincy’s. Even with the home field advantage, the Bengals are poised to pull away with this one.
NFL Odds: Bengals 26, Cowboys 20
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