Week 5 NFL Odds - Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings Game Preview

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After losing their starting quarterback to a freak injury in the preseason and watching their Hall of Fame running back crumble to the turf with a knee injury in the second game, most teams would have cashed it in. Not the Minnesota Vikings. Riding a fierce defense, the Vikes are one of two 4-0 teams in the NFL and they appear to be following the blueprint put together by last season’s Super Bowl champions. Minnesota looks to keep its record unblemished when it hosts the Houston Texans in Week 5.

Kickoff for this regular season Week 5 game is set for Sunday, October 9, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium.

Odds Analysis

With the Vikings having played on Monday night, the line had yet to hit the board. Minnesota has turned its new stadium into a definite home field advantage winning all four games, including two preseason contests, while covering the spread each time at the $1.1 billion facility. The Vikes are hot and should be favored by 5-6 points in this matchup. With a pair of stingy defenses, the over/under will likely be in the range of 40 points. Minnesota has cashed the under in each of its last three games.

Injury Report

J.J. Watt – The three-time Defensive Player of the Year went on injured reserve after a second surgery on his back and the Texans defense struggled in its first game without him. After recording 10 sacks in three games to start the year, the Texans managed just one on Sunday and watched the Titans rally from a 14-point deficit, in part because the line couldn’t generate enough pressure on Marcus Mariota.

Adrian Peterson – Minnesota’s formula for success was simple: rely on a ferocious defense to shut down the opponent and control the ball with AP in the run game. Well, Peterson is out of the equation for another few weeks recovering from a knee injury and the ground attack has suffered. The Vikes are last in the league with an average of just 64.2 yards per game.

Key Stat

Not only are the Vikings really good at shutting down opponents, they are also the best in the NFL at creating turnovers. Minnesota intercepted Eli Manning and recovered a fumble on special teams in Monday night’s victory over the Giants to finish with a plus-2 margin. It was the first time this season the Vikings failed to get three turnovers in a game. For the year, the Vikes lead the NFL with 11 takeaways and their plus-10 turnover differential is four better than the next closest team.

And while the Vikings are exceptional at creating turnovers, they are stingy at giving the football away. Sam Bradford has come in and taken control of the offense. It’s not a group that is going to march up and down the field and light up the scoreboard, but it doesn’t have to be. The Vikings are last in the league with 64.2 rush yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry, yet Bradford hasn’t committed a turnover and Minnesota has just one giveaway all season. The current pace is not sustainable, but it hasn’t happened by accident.

Free ATS Pick

The Vikings were scrutinized for the deal that landed them Bradford with many saying they gave up too much for a marginal, injury prone quarterback. I said at the time that the trade was necessary for Minnesota to fulfill its aspirations of reaching the Super Bowl. Three games in, Bradford looks like he’s been here for years. Minnesota had to do something because Shaun Hill wasn’t going to take them all the way. Even with a destructive defense, Hill wasn’t the answer. Bradford has had some good years and when he’s healthy he’s proven to be a reliable starter in the league.

The move showed the team that management believes they can have a strong run. And when the players have that feeling, it inspires them a bit more. The Vikings don’t need a lot from their offense, but they have to cash in when given the chance. Bradford has done that and more. Hell, he may be a better fit for the offense than Teddy Bridgewater, and that was another reason for the move. With Watt out, Houston’s defense isn’t as imposing and the Vikes will take advantage much the same way Tennessee did. The Vikes will pressure Brock Osweiler into some mistakes and come away with another home win.

NFL Odds: Vikings 24, Texans 17

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