Can we finally put this whole Deflategate fiasco behind us? It looks like it as Tom Brady is set to make his return from a four-game suspension and start on Sunday when the New England Patriots visit the Cleveland Browns. Brady’s backups did a nice job in his absence, taking the Pats to a 3-1 record, which is probably better than most anticipated. New England would have been happy splitting those four games and now they’re playing with house money heading into their Week 5 contest.
Watch this regular season Week 5 matchup live on Sunday, October 9, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at FirstEnergy Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New England Patriots -10.5
Cleveland Browns +10.5
Over/Under 46.5
Odds Analysis
The Patriots opened at -10 and that didn’t scare many bettors away. New England got action on 90 percent of the early wagers which moved the line to -10.5. Being favored by double digits on the road is rare and the Pats have failed to cover in each of the previous five instances. The total was wagered down a half point to its current 46.5.
Injury Report
Jacoby Brissett – He was the healthier of the two injured backups and started last week, but his injured thumb was a factor in the Pats getting blanked. Now that Brady has returned, who will be his backup? Brissett is expected to have a “procedure” on his hand while Jimmy Garoppolo is still recovering from a shoulder injury. Julian Edelman was the backup against the Bills and could serve in that capacity again. The Pats better hope Brady is ready to go the distance.
Austin Reiter – Making his first career start in place of the injured Cam Erving at center, Reiter suffered a torn ACL and is done for the year. Reiter held his own and drew praise from the coaching staff, but now it’s back to the drawing board. Guard John Greco likely moves to center creating a domino effect along the line. And instability up front isn’t what the Browns need for their rookie quarterback making his third pro start.
Player to Watch
Returning to work after a month-long absence is always difficult, even for a future Hall-of-Famer. Don’t expect everything to go smoothly when Brady makes his season debut on Sunday. During his suspension, Brady was prohibited from visiting the team’s practice facility and having any contact with coaches and teammates. Brady hasn’t played since the final exhibition game and hasn’t played a meaningful game since last season’s AFC Championship.
It might be safe to assume there will be rust and it might take a little longer to chisel it off that 39-year-old frame. While Brady was seen throwing a football with Giselle, I don’t think that qualifies as practice time. But Brady is a professional and he’s motivated to get back to work. And he has the Browns as his warm up game. Brady isn’t the savior and just because he’s back it doesn’t mean the Pats can relax. Sure they had an injured third-string quarterback playing last week, but the Patriots were exposed by the Bills and didn’t offer much resistance. If the rest of the team waits for Brady to carry the load, the Browns could make it a long afternoon.
Free ATS Pick
The Brady suspension ended about a week too late for the Pats. But going 3-1 without him is pretty solid. Now Brady gets his starting gig back, taking over for the injured backups. Oddsmakers feel confident Brady can step in and pick up where he left off, pegging the Pats as 10.5-point road chalk. Playing the winless Browns has plenty to do with that. New England is a different team with Brady, one that’s now a contender in the AFC, but there are issues deeper than the quarterback situation that arose in a shutout loss to the Bills. The offensive line is still looking to get healthy, Rob Gronkowski has done nothing, and outside of two 100-yard games from LeGarrette Blount, the running game has struggled.
Laying 10.5-points on the road is almost unheard of and you know the Browns are well aware of the spread. But Cleveland is just not a good football team right now and the Patriots rarely lose two straight in the Brady era. Hue Jackson is doing things right with the Browns and they will win a game at some point this season. It won’t happen on Sunday.
NFL Odds: Patriots 34, Browns 18
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