For the second time in just over a month the Tennessee Titans will pay a visit to South Florida, only this time the game has a lot more meaning. The Titans were here for the final preseason game when both teams were still optimistic about the upcoming season. Five weeks later the Titans and Miami Dolphins are searching for answers in an attempt to salvage their seasons. Tennessee won that meaningless exhibition game, now we’ll see which team has progressed further in Week 5.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 5 game is set for Sunday, October 9, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tennessee Titans +3.5
Miami Dolphins -3.5
Over/Under 43
Odds Analysis
The Dolphins get the standard field goal for home field advantage but they’ve lost the confidence of the betting public with over 60 percent of the wagers played on the visitors. It’s very likely we see this line drop at least a half point by kickoff. With both teams ranked near the bottom of the league in scoring average, it’s not surprising nearly two-thirds of the early wagers are on the under. That’s forced the total to drop from 44 to 43 and it could go lower.
Injury Report
Al Woods – Tennessee’s starting nose tackle is expected to miss several weeks with a calf injury. Woods has been a fixture on the defensive line since joining the team in 2014 and is a valuable run stopper in the middle. The Titans are thin up front to begin with and his absence could create opportunities for the Dolphins to run the football.
Arian Foster – with Foster still hampered by a groin injury, the Dolphins all but abandoned the run game in their loss to the Bengals last Thursday. Foster won the starting job in training camp but has missed the past two games and the attack has sputtered. Against the Bengals, Miami ran the ball just 13 times for 62 yards.
Matchup to Watch
One area where the Titans were lagging was in special teams and because of it coordinator Bobby April was relieved of his duties. It’s hard to put the entire blame of a 1-3 start on the special teams coach, but Mike Mularkey pulled the trigger after Tennessee allowed a 67-yard punt return for a touchdown in its loss to Houston on Sunday. That play turned out to be the game-winner in a 27-20 Titans loss. Another glaring special teams gaffe in the same game proved costly when the Titans were flagged for having 12 men on the field when Houston was in a punting situation. That allowed the Texans to kick a field goal right before halftime.
It wasn’t just Sunday’s game that forced the change. Tennessee has struggled in kick coverage all season, ranking 31st in the league with an average of 28 yards per return allowed on kickoffs and 27th with an average of 14.9 yards per return on punts. Additionally, the Titans are one of just four teams to allow a kick return touchdown. Assistant special teams coach Steve Hoffman will assume the role and try to get more from his gang.
Free ATS Pick
Both teams are experiencing a serious identity crisis and the one that figures it out first will have the upper hand in this one. Tennessee stacked its backfield with a pair of workhorse running backs in DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry, yet they have one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the game in Marcus Mariota. Mularkey’s plan of establishing the ground game is great if you can win. But the Titans haven’t been able to do that. It seems as if the talents of Mariota are going to waste and he looks uncomfortable directing the offense.
The Dolphins hired Adam Gase to tap the potential in Ryan Tannehill, and that hasn’t worked out. We keep hearing about how good Tannehill can be and he has put up decent numbers over his five-year career. However, the Dolphins just can’t seem to get over the seven-win hump and reach the playoffs. Maybe Tannehill isn’t the answer in Miami. Tennessee will utilize Murray to pound the Dolphins 29th ranked run defense, which will open the field for Mariota to take some shots downfield. The Titans have a decent defense and should be able to keep the Dolphins in check. It adds up to a road victory for Tennessee.
NFL Odds: Titans 22, Dolphins 17
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