What a difference a year makes. After losing just once during the regular season last year, the Carolina Panthers are trying to match that total in the win column this year. They’re on their way after a lackluster effort on Monday night. The Panthers’ Super Bowl hangover continues and worsens each week. At 1-4, the odds of Carolina reaching the playoffs have plummeted to six percent. There is work to be done and the first game of the rest of the season takes places against the New Orleans Saints in Week 6.
This matchup in Week 6 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, October 16, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
Odds Analysis
While oddsmakers wait on the availability of Cam Newton, the line and total remain off the board. Without Newton, the Saints’ odds of winning drastically increase, as does the over/under. The teams have historically played high-scoring games in the Superdome with the last two and four of the past five cashing the over. I don’t think points will be hard to come by, even if Newton sits again.
Injury Report
Cam Newton – He’s the reigning MVP for a reason and you can’t take him out of the lineup and expect the offense to click. Sure Newton’s struggled this year, but he set the bar so high in 2015 that some regression was expected. But Derek Anderson showed just how much Newton means to the team. Anderson threw a pair of picks and lost a fumble on Monday night.
James Laurinaitis – The Saints’ free agent signee and starting linebacker missed the previous game with a quad contusion and is questionable to return against the Panthers. The Saints defense has been atrocious again this season, but Laurinaitis has been a find. He does a nice job in coverage and his absence likely makes Greg Olsen a bigger threat in Carolina’s passing game.
Key Stat
A big reason for Carolina’s success last season had to do with their NFL-best plus-20 turnover margin. The Panthers led the league with 24 interceptions and their 39 takeaways were six better than the next closest team. Past success doesn’t carry over and the Panthers are a classic example. Part of the blame for this season’s struggles can be attributed to Carolina’s minus-7 turnover differential. Anderson, starting in place of the concussed Newton, was responsible for three of Carolina’s four turnovers on Monday night and the Panthers failed to record a takeaway.
The Panthers turned the ball over just 19 times all of last season. They already have a league-high 14 giveaways this year, which is one more than the troubled New York Jets. Their turnover margin is tied with Miami and the Giants for the second-worst. All three teams have a losing record, which shows us just how important taking care of the football is.
Free ATS Pick
If you look at the NFC South standings the Saints are listed above the Panthers. That’s a sign of just how bad things have gone for Carolina. Most teams prefer to not have a bye week this early in the year, but for the Saints the off week couldn’t have come at a better time. New Orleans has been hit hard with injuries and the time off has allowed several players to get a bit healthier for the rest of the year. The Saints are also coming off their first win of the season, which could make them a dangerous team. Having Drew Brees and the NFL’s second-ranked pass offense also complicates things for opponents.
The problem with the Saints remains their defense. They are dead last in points and next to last in total yards per game allowed. Even without Newton, the Panthers should be able to put up their share of points, making the over a strong play, even though the total hasn’t been set. If Newton gets the green light, that number will be significantly higher, but either way, these teams can light up the scoreboard.
NFL Odds: Panthers 34, Saints 31
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