Welcome back Tom Brady. The New England Patriots quarterback showed no effects of his long layoff due to the Deflategate scandal, carving up the Browns in his first meaningful game since last season’s AFC Championship. And it looked like Brady was dialed in to getting his team back to that game this season. Sure, it was against the lowly Browns, but Brady looked sharp and the Cincinnati Bengals could be in for a workout trying to slow him down in Week 6.
This contest in Week 6 of the regular season will go down Sunday, October 16, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cincinnati Bengals +8.5
New England Patriots -8.5
Over/Under 47
Odds Analysis
The Patriots are getting plenty of support now that Brady is back in the lineup, and it’s not hard to see why. Opening as an 8-point favorite, the Pats have gotten over 80 percent of the early action, driving the spread up a half point to -8.5. New England easily covered the 10-point spread at Cleveland, but the Bengals aren’t the Browns. The line is tantalizing for the visitors, who are in desperate need of a win.
Injury Report
Jeremy Hill – Cincinnati’s leading rusher was removed from the Dallas game after sustaining a chest injury. It was the same injury that landed Hill on the injury report in advance of Sunday’s game and one that could impact the Bengals ground attack. Giovani Bernard has split time with Hill in the backfield but is primarily used on passing downs. Bernard ran for 50 yards on nine carries taking for Hill, but isn’t a durable every-play option.
Key Stat
It’s no secret the Bengals sorely miss Tyler Eifert, who has yet to play this season while recovering from offseason ankle surgery and a sore back that he injured last week. But Cincinnati is also without two other receiving threats who contributed largely to the team’s success last season. Both Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu took their talents elsewhere, and without them and Eifert, the Bengals have sputtered in the red zone. Those three players were targeted 33 times in the red zone last season with Eifert grabbing 11 touchdowns on his 15 targets, easily the most productive of the group.
Andy Dalton had four reliable options in red zone scenarios last year, this season only A.J. Green has a red zone touchdown catch. And the Bengals rank last in red zone touchdown efficiency converting just 31 percent of their trips. They were one of the best last season, converting two-thirds of their trips into six points. Lack of production inside the 20-yard line isn’t the only reason why the Bengals are 2-2 at this point, but it’s an area that needs to be better. Eifert will return at some point, but will he be enough to rectify the problem?
Free ATS Pick
The Bengals looked horrible in their loss at Dallas over the weekend and the Pats were unstoppable in thumping the Browns. So the ideal pick is to go with New England now that Brady has returned. But hold on for just a second. The Bengals still have talented team despite losing three of their last four games. We’ve grown accustomed to regular season success in Cincinnati over the past several years and to see the Bengals below .500 at this stage is uncommon. The Bengals are a more imposing opponent for the Pats than the Browns were and nothing will get them back on track more than a victory in Foxboro.
We’ll give the Bengals a mulligan last week and they should come out with more desperation now that they are solidly in the middle of a packed AFC. This is part of Marvin Lewis’ plan, to suffer through some adversity during the regular season to get pumped for a postseason run and eventually a postseason win. It won’t be easy, but it never is in the NFL. Brady had the comfort of facing the Browns in his return game and won’t be so lucky against the Bengals. I still think Cincy has top-notch talent and getting eight points is a lot, even if it is against the Patriots. The Bengals pull off the upset, which isn’t really an upset at all.
NFL Odds: Bengals 27, Patriots 24
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