Two weeks ago this matchup didn’t appear as though it would have implications in the AFC South. Boy, how things have changed. The Indianapolis Colts bounced back from a disastrous effort in London and the gap has closed on the first place Houston Texans, who continue to struggle with their million dollar quarterback looking anything but and defensive standout J.J. Watt done for the year. The good news for the Texans is that they return home for this Week 5 game where they haven’t lost this season.
This matchup in Week 6 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, October 16, 2016, at 5:30 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Indianapolis Colts +3.5
Houston Texans -3.5
Over/Under 46
Odds Analysis
The betting public isn’t showing much confidence in the Texans in this one, with the line wagered down a half point to -3 soon after hitting the board. Houston gets the standard field goal for being the home team, but over 80 percent of the early wagers have come in on the visitors. This could be a good time to jump on the Texans, who are 3-0 both SU and ATS at home this season.
Injury Report
Josh McNary – Was taken out of Sunday’s game with an apparent neck injury and his loss could be devastating to a defense that has struggled this season. McNary had moved into the starting inside linebacker spot, an area weakened with the free agent loss of Jerrell Freeman during the offseason. The Colts had used four different players before McNary wrested the job, now he could be out and Indy is back to where it was.
Johnathan Joseph – Houston’s defensive backfield took another hit when Joseph left Sunday’s game with an apparent concussion. His loss wasn’t the reason why the Texans allowed 271 passing yards and two touchdowns to Sam Bradford, but it didn’t help that he missed the second half.
Matchup to Watch
Houston’s defense went into scramble mode when Watt was put on injured reserve and lost for the year. Now, the group is suffering even more on the injury front, especially in the secondary. Kareem Jackson missed Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury and the Texans watched starting corner Joseph leave with a concussion and safety Quintin Demps hobble off with a calf injury, adding to the woes on that side of the football.
Even without leading receiver Stefone Diggs, Sam Bradford and the Vikings riddled the Texans. Bradford threw for 271 yards and two touchdowns completing 22 of 30 passes and little-known Adam Thielen caught seven of eight targets for 127 yards. It was a weak effort against one of the worst offensive units in the NFL. You know Andrew Luck and the Colts will take notice. Indy used a hurry-up offense and opened up the passing game. It resulted in Luck throwing for 322 yards without a pick. The Texans won’t have Watt back in the lineup, but they better hope the secondary gets healthy sooner rather than later.
Free ATS Pick
It’s tough to overcome the loss of such a disruptive force like Watt, who is easily the most feared defensive player in the game and a three-time Defensive Player of the Year. But it’s more difficult to overcome the erratic play of your starting quarterback, and that’s what the Texans are dealing with. Osweiler looks nothing like the player he was in Denver last season and the Texans took a big gamble on him after he made just seven starts in his previous four seasons, all those came last year when the numbers were decent.
The Texans should feel better about their chances facing the Colts, who aren’t nearly as scary on defense as the Vikings. And a return home is good news for Houston. The Texans haven’t won three games because of Osweiler, but his indecisiveness is a big reason why they’ve lost twice. It’s way too early to call his signing a bust, but he better start playing like the quarterback the Texans need to compete for a division title. Osweiler has shown well in games against lesser opponents, and getting the Colts at home is another opportunity for him to pad his stats.
NFL Odds: Texans 27, Colts 21
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