If nothing else, the Oakland Raiders sure make their games fun to watch. The league’s worst defense coupled with a group of emerging young stars on offense has made the Raiders a fancy pick on the total. Oakland has cashed the over four times in five games, but they may have a difficult time denting the scoreboard against the plodding Kansas City Chiefs when the old American Football League rivals hook up in Week 6.
This matchup in Week 6 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, October 16, 2016, at 4:05 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kansas City Chiefs +1.5
Oakland Raiders -1.5
Over/Under 46.5
Odds Analysis
The line seems a little tight given the records, but dig a little deeper and we see that the Chiefs have had some success against the Raiders, winning three straight and five of the last six games while going 4-2 ATS in that span. And it’s not like the Raiders are winning big. Their four wins have come by a total of 12 points and they are 0-2 ATS at home. Andy Reid has been good coming off a bye going 12-5 SU in his career.
Injury Report
Knile Davis – Kansas City’s backfield took a hit when Davis left the last game with a concussion and entered the league’s protocol. He was pressed into service with Charcandrick West sidelined with an ankle injury and Jamaal Charles still recovering from knee surgery. Davis has also been used on kickoff returns so that’s an area that could also suffer.
Clive Walford – The Raiders tight end group was thinned out due to a knee injury suffered by Walford, which came one week after Lee Smith was lost for the year with an ankle injury. Oakland loses its third-leading receiver with Walford out of the lineup and it could compromise the middle-distance passing game.
Matchup to Watch
The Chiefs had plenty to work on during their off week, especially with their offense, which has been somewhat stagnant all season. The team was expected to get a boost with the return of Jamaal Charles, but he saw limited action in Kansas City’s loss at Pittsburgh before the bye. It was such an uninspired performance and the Chiefs were manhandled so badly that Charles had just two carries for seven yards in his first action in a year. Charles’ workload will likely increase when the Chiefs return to play Oakland and his presence is expected to help an offense that averages just 338 yards per game, including a paltry 90.3 on the ground, and scores an average of 20.8 points per game.
Like other teams that have faced the Raiders this season, the Chiefs can get better in a hurry. Oakland ranks last in the NFL giving up 452.6 yards per game, which is 30 yards more on average than the next worst team. The Raiders also surrender a league-worst 6.8 yards per play and are last in pass defense allowing better than 325 yards an outing.
Free ATS Pick
You have to admit that the Raiders have had a nice string of good luck to start the year. As bad as their defense has been in surrendering over 400 yards in four games, to be 4-1 and tied for the division lead is pretty nice. The offense has been as advertised, maybe even better. Derek Carr continues his growth as a quality quarterback and weapons like Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper make the passing game lethal.
Raiders fan will say the defense can play better and when it does the team will be unstoppable. Opponents look at a two-point conversion that succeeded in New Orleans, a questionable penalty that wiped out a Titans touchdown in Tennessee and most recently a botched game-tying field goal attempt by the Chargers. The Raiders emerged victorious in all those games and at some point the luck is going to run out. I say it happens this week. The Chiefs aren’t the most prolific offensive team, but facing the Oakland D will empower them to reach new heights. They have the pieces in place and Charles will be a difference-maker when he finally gets back on the field.
NFL Odds: Chiefs 31, Raiders 30
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