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The Atlanta Falcons have heard 28-3 all offseason. Atlanta seemed destined to win its first Super Bowl ever last year, and was up big on the New England Patriots in the third quarter. That’s when Tom Brady took over. Brady led a miracle comeback that cemented his legacy as the best quarterback to ever play the game in a thrilling, come from behind victory that left Falcons fans in tears and bettors angrily ripping up their tickets. Getting a win here would be a small victory for Atlanta, but it will never erase the pain from losing out on its first ever title.
This contest in Week 7 of the regular season will go down Sunday, October 22, 2017, at 8:30 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The game will be broadcast on NBC.
NFL Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Atlanta Falcons +3.5
New England Patriots -3.5
Over/Under 55
Odds Analysis
New England is just 2-4 ATS this season and one of those two wins came by just one point. The Patriots have had some major issues stopping teams on defense and that has keyed the poor record against the number. Brady has played well and keeps putting points on the board, but the other side of the ball has let the team down.
Atlanta has had a weird season. The Falcons were able to get by all three NFC North teams they have faced so far, but lost its two home games against AFC East opponents. While the loss to Buffalo makes a little bit of sense at least, the loss to Miami last week was really confusing. Atlanta was coming off of a bye week, but just looked flat against the Phins.
Key Stat
It’s incredible to fathom, but the Patriots have the worst defense in the NFL according to Football Outsiders. New England was unable to stop any offense in its first four games of the season, allowing three of the four offenses it faced to score at least 33 points.
Bill Belichick has continually shipped off or gotten rid of defenders once he believed them to be past their prime or not deserving of a large contract. However, we’re sure he wishes he still had Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins. Those two players would at least provide consistent production.
Sure, the surprise retirement of Rob Ninkovich really hurt, but this unit should not have fallen off this much. Stephon Gilmore has been a big disappointment since signing in the offseason and Devin McCourty has been one of the worst safeties in the NFL.
Player to Watch
Devonta Freeman has not had a great year for the Falcons. He signed a five-year extension this offseason, but has only cracked 100 total yards in a game twice in 2017 and has been losing touches to Tevin Coleman.
Last week, Freeman only touched the ball 11 times, and while he did average over seven yards a touch, he only saw one touch more than Coleman did. In 2016, Freeman was one of the key contributors to an Atlanta team that surprised everyone by winning the NFC and was one of the catalysts on the offense. For the Falcons to start winning again, he needs to see the ball more.
Free ATS Pick
Both of these teams are experiencing something of a Super Bowl hangover. It’s a little surprise to see the Patriots struggle because of their talent and how well they have performed year in and year out but Brady is getting older and the defense has been an issue.
It’s harder to diagnose what’s going on in Atlanta as the Falcons have only looked good in one game so far, a blowout of the Patriots, and have struggled to beat mediocre competition.
With that in mind, back the Patriots here. The hook is a bit concerning, but New England feels like it should be a larger favorite than this at home.
NFL Odds: Patriots 34, Falcons 28
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