The Miami Dolphins made Vegas sportsbooks plenty of money with their upset win over Pittsburgh on Sunday. And it also temporarily quieted a restless fan base. The talk of Rex Ryan getting the axe has quieted, too, after his Buffalo Bills won for the fourth straight time with a thumping of the hapless 49ers. Buffalo has looked like the best team in the AFC over the past month but they still have a hurdle to jump in the East. That hurdle comes next week at home, but the Bills better not look too far ahead.
Watch this regular season Week 7 matchup live on Sunday, October 23, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Buffalo Bills -3
Miami Dolphins +3
Over/Under 45
Odds Analysis
Miami’s win last week likely prevented the line from being a little higher. The Dolphins also get some consideration for being the home team. But the Bills are playing well and are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six with the Fins. Miami still has plenty of concerns and 75 percent of the wagers on the spread are for the visitors, and I can see the line moving up before kickoff.
Injury Report
Reshad Jones – The loss of Miami’s starting safety to a shoulder injury would be a serious blow to an already shaky defense. Jones sustained what appears to be a torn rotator cuff and the secondary would lose its biggest piece. There are things in the defensive scheme the Dolphins wouldn’t be able to do as well if he’s out for any length of time. The Dolphins lack depth at several positions and that was evident the past few weeks when several starters were out injured. Jones is one player the Fins can’t afford to lose.
Look Ahead
Forgive the Bills if they happen to overlook the Dolphins with a matchup against the division-leading New England Patriots on the docket next week. Buffalo has been on a roll and included in their four-game win streak was a shutout of the Patriots in Foxboro in Week 4. It goes down as a win in the record book and counts just the same in the standings, but the Bills caught a break playing the Pats without Tom Brady or Jimmy Garoppolo. With a chance to prove that game wasn’t a fluke, the rematch in Week 8 looms large and could have major implications in the AFC East standings and the conference playoff picture.
It might be harder for Buffalo to overlook Miami after the Dolphins knocked off the Steelers on Sunday in what was the biggest upset of the weekend. For the first time this season the Dolphins had their top five offensive linemen on the field at the same time and the offense clicked. Coincidence? I think not. Miami rushed for 222 yards and Ryan Tannehill threw for 252 yards and wasn’t sacked. It was the kind of performance Adam Gase expects from his group, maybe even better.
Free ATS Pick
When given a chance to run the offense Tannehill has proven to be rather adept. With an offensive line intact and healthy for the first time this season, the Dolphins racked up the yards and points in a win over the Steelers. The holes were plentiful for Jay Ajayi, who scampered for 204 yards, and Tannehill was razor sharp completing 24 of 32 attempts. But the big story was the defense. The maligned group shut down the Steelers’ weapons, holding Le’Veon Bell to 53 yards rushing and limiting Antonio Brown to just four catches and 39 yards.
It was good to see the Dolphins finally play well and get a win, but they really aren’t ready to contend for anything and the good vibes from that Steelers win will quickly evaporate. Even with their solid effort against Pittsburgh, the Dolphins stink defending the run, and that happens to be what the Bills do better than any team in the league. Expect a heavy dose of LeSean McCoy, and without Jones in the secondary, the passing lanes will open up for Tyrod Taylor. I don’t think the Dolphins can have a repeat performance and the Bills will cover the spread.
NFL Odds: Bills 27, Dolphins 17
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