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The Jacksonville Jaguars have alternated wins and losses all season long and that has led to some interesting results. Jacksonville hammered Houston, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh away from home by 20 points each, but got crushed at home by Tennessee and the LA Rams. The only close game the Jags played was back in Week 4 when they lost by a field goal to the New York Jets. This week they are coming off of a loss and playing on the road, so if the pattern holds they are looking good heading into their game against the Indianapolis Colts.
This contest in Week 7 of the regular season will go down Sunday, October 22, 2017, at 1 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. The game will be broadcast on CBS.
NFL Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5
Indianapolis Colts +3.5
Odds Analysis
Indianapolis was on top of Tennessee on Monday Night Football last week, before Tennessee rallied back to win. The final score doesn’t tell the story of this one, as the Colts were tied up with the Titans halfway through the fourth quarter before two long touchdowns sealed their fate.
The Jaguars were done in by some poor special teams play last week against the Rams. LA scored on a kickoff return for a touchdown on the opening play of the game, and then returned a blocked punt for a touchdown later in the game. The two scores betrayed a great defensive effort from the Jags, who allowed the Rams to pick up just 12 first downs and 249 yards of offense.
Matchup to Watch
Jacksonville has the best pass defense in the NFL according to Football Outsiders and it’s hard to imagine Jacoby Brissett having success against this unit. The Jaguars are allowing just 189 passing yards per game on average and have picked off opposing quarterbacks 10 times. They have allowed just four touchdowns through the air despite playing some very good quarterbacks.
Jalen Ramsey is the cornerstone of this secondary. Last year’s top five pick only played one year as a cornerback at Florida State, but is one of the most freakish athletes the league has ever seen. He came on at the end of last season, being named Pro Football Focus’ top cornerback in the month of December and that has continued in 2017. Through the first six weeks of the season, he is the third highest-rated cornerback in the NFL and punishes quarterbacks that throw his way.
Key Stat
It’s a little confusing why the Colts haven’t tried to run the ball more. Jacoby Brissett has done a decent job in relief of Andrew Luck this season, but he isn’t going to take over a game for you. Brissett was acquired by the Colts just before the start of the season, and didn’t have the time to gel with the team that a quarterback needs.
Frank Gore is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry, yet Marlon Mack has looked good when given the chance to run the ball. Over 25 percent of his carries have ended in first downs and he is averaging 4.8 yards per carry.
As good as Jacksonville’s defense is against the pass, it has not been able to stop the run. Look for a healthy dose of Mack and Gore in this one.
Free ATS Pick
The Jaguars are going to need to stack the line of scrimmage and force the Colts to beat them through the air. That can be a dangerous thing with speedsters like T.Y. Hilton on the roster, but the secondary has been able to cover most receivers one on one.
This should be a low scoring affair. However, Jacksonville will eventually wear down the Indianapolis defense with healthy doses of Leonard Fournette and pick up the win.
NFL Odds: Jaguars 17, Colts 10
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