The Houston Texans might be rethinking their decision to sign Brock Osweiler to a mega-bucks contract following another pitiful display. Osweiler returned to Denver and laid an egg against his former team, providing Broncos’ GM John Elway more ammunition to use in his public flogging of his old quarterback. The good news for Osweiler and the Texans is that they return home to face the Detroit Lions in Week 8, where they haven’t lost this season and the QBs numbers are far superior.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 8 game is set for Sunday, October 30, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Detroit Lions +2.5
Houston Texans -2.5
Over/Under 45
Odds Analysis
It’s easy to bash Osweiler and the Texans given their recent displays, and the betting public has taken notice with over 70 percent of the early wagers on the visitors. But keep in mind that the Texans are 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS at home against teams similar to that of the Lions.
Injury Report
Darius Slay – The Lions lost their top cover corner to a hamstring injury and Slay could be out for a few games. That poses a problem for a defense that has dealt with numerous injuries this season. But the secondary could be in for a workout covering DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller without Slay in the lineup.
Derek Newton – Houston’s starting right tackle crumbled to the ground in the first half of Monday night’s game and was carted off the field with both legs in an air cast. It’s safe to assume he won’t be back anytime soon. His replacement, Chris Clark, struggled in pass protection, repeatedly getting burned by Von Miller off the edge.
Player to Watch
The union between Osweiler and the Texans hasn’t all been rainbows and unicorns. There have been some issues with the quarterback’s play, but that’s what happens when you sign a big free agent contract and play the game’s most important position. It was unfair to expect Osweiler to deliver immediately, after all he had made just seven NFL starts in his previous four seasons, and prior to an extended stint last season, he had thrown just 30 NFL passes in his first three years. And those were in garbage-time roles. So, is it more foolish to think Osweiler could be the next Tom Brady or for the Texans to dole out the cash for an unproven product?
Two of Osweiler’s worst games have come in primetime when the lights are shining brighter, and they happened to be against pretty good teams on the road. The Texans were blanked at New England in Week 3 and embarrassed in Denver Monday night. But splits tell us that Osweiler is much better at home and against lesser foes. Osweiler is completing 63.2 percent of his passes at home, nearly 11 percentage points higher than on the road. His yardage total is twice as high at home and he has seven touchdown passes at NRG Stadium compared to just one on the road. The Rams shredded Detroit a few weeks back, so the Lions aren’t scaring anyone with their defense. And Osweiler has proven he can take care of the weaker clubs.
Free ATS Pick
As long as the Texans hold serve at home they’ll probably end up winning the weak AFC South. Houston has been much better on its own turf and Osweiler’s numbers show that he can take care of weaker opponents. The Lions definitely fall into that category. But for Houston to actually become a better offensive club, Osweiler needs overall improvement. He has the tools and the backing of his coaching staff and teammates, but the Texans need to stick the ball in the end zone. Settling for field goals will work against the Bears and Titans, but not against the Patriots and Broncos.
The Lions have shown plenty of determination during their three-game win streak to get back in the NFC playoff conversation, but they hit the road after three weeks at home. The last time the Lions played an away game was their Week 4 clunker in Chicago. Osweiler will rally the troops in this one and lift his club to a cover win against a struggling defensive unit, because that’s what he does.
NFL Odds: Texans 24, Lions 20
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