Just when we’re ready to fire Chuck Pagano and write the Indianapolis Colts off, they pull out a win to save their season. With their season on the brink, the Colts beat Tennessee again and suddenly they are back nipping at the heels of first place in the AFC South. There’s still plenty of room for improvement if the Colts want to be considered a contender in their own division and they’ll get a chance with two huge games before their bye. The first opportunity comes in a Week 8 showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Watch this regular season Week 8 matchup live on Sunday, October 30, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kansas City Chiefs -2.5
Indianapolis Colts +2.5
Over/Under 50
Odds Analysis
The Chiefs are getting plenty of action on the spread and we could see movement before kickoff. Over 70 percent of early wagers have been on the visitors. Kansas City has played above the total just twice in six games this season and with the total at 50, under bettors are jumping all over it. K.C. doesn’t want to get in a shootout and that puts value on the under, even if the number dips before kickoff.
Injury Report
Phillip Gaines – Missed another game with a sore knee and the Chiefs pass defense is hurting without him in the lineup. Gaines missed the Pittsburgh game a few weeks back and the D was shredded. He returned in a win over Oakland and the defense played much better in slowing Derek Carr. It sure would be nice to have him against Andrew Luck, but the balky knee might prevent that from happening.
Phillip Dorsett – The Colts third leading receiver missed the last game with a hamstring injury, taking an important weapon off the field. In his absence, Luck targeted his tight ends 15 times and had just two completions to receivers not named T.Y. Hilton.
Matchup to Watch
Just like any quarterback in the history of the game, Luck is at his best when he has time to throw the football. He was deadly on Sunday against Tennessee and the beleaguered offensive line did a nice job against one of the better sack teams in the NFL. Due to injuries and poor play, the Colts have mixed and matched their offensive line. Without any cohesion, the group struggled in protection and Luck took a beating. The Colts have surrendered the most quarterback sacks in the league, but giving up just two to the Titans on Sunday was actually a victory. The line play has steadily improved and for the first time Indy has its projected starters healthy and ready to play.
Luck was able to set up in the pocket and allow downfield plays to develop without scrambling for his life. Because of that he was able to complete nine passes that travelled at least 15 yards in the air. Overall he was 9 of 12 for 219 yards and a touchdown on such passes. Those plays wouldn’t happen if it weren’t for the line. It’s possible we could see more of the same against the Chiefs, who have collected a league-low eight sacks this season and need to bring extra attackers to create pressure.
Free ATS Pick
The play of Spencer Ware in the backfield and the emergence of Tyreek Hill in the passing game have transformed the Chiefs into a formidable offensive club. We don’t always associate the Chiefs with offense and the numbers don’t suggest we start doing that now, but the team has thrived under Andy Reid and they don’t beat themselves.
Kansas City is quietly lurking near the top of the AFC West, tied for the division lead in the loss column, and this is a very winnable game for them. Indy still has issues on defense and the Chiefs will look to pound the ball with Ware against the 25th ranked run defense. That covers two things for the Chiefs. First, it allows them to control the clock and second, it keeps Luck off the field. K.C. will attempt to disrupt Luck with a variety of different looks on defense and if the Chiefs can rattle him just slightly, it’s to their benefit. Just like last week, the Chiefs want to prevent a shootout against an explosive offense. They find success to cover the spread, but the point total won’t be as lofty.
NFL Odds: Chiefs 24, Colts 20
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