The Buffalo Bills won’t be so lucky this time around. They escaped the first meeting with the New England Patriots and didn’t have to defend Tom Brady. That worked out pretty well for the Bills, who pitched a shutout, handing the Pats their first blanking at Gillette Stadium. To say Brady and Bill Belichick are out for revenge is probably an understatement. But this Week 8 matchup is large in the AFC East standings as well. A Buffalo win closes the gap while a Pats victory extends the lead to a full three games.
Watch this regular season Week 8 matchup live on Sunday, October 30, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at New Era Field.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New England Patriots -6
Buffalo Bills +6
Over/Under 47.5
Odds Analysis
New England is 6-1 ATS overall this season and 3-0 ATS on the road. Their only loss was in Week 4 to the Bills when the Pats were 3.5-point favorites. That was a different time and the personnel was also different. New England is getting plenty of action with 87 percent of the wagers on the visitors. The line spiked a half point to New England -6 and with some injury concerns on the Buffalo side, we could see that increase before kickoff.
Injury Report
LeSean McCoy – The Bills took a chance by starting McCoy last week despite a hamstring injury. The move backfired when McCoy aggravated the injury and was removed from the game. It’s easy to see why Rex Ryan started him. McCoy is the key cog in the league’s second-ranked rushing offense but was clearly bothered by the injury getting just 11 yards on eight carries. There is a steep dropoff behind him so the Bills bread and butter will be affected.
Aaron Williams – Buffalo’s injuries weren’t limited to the offense in Miami. Williams was cracked on a vicious block and sustained a neck injury and possible concussion forcing him out of the game. The absence of the starting safety could prove critical against Brady and the Pats’ passing attack.
Matchup to Watch
It’s no secret that Rex Ryan and Bill Belichick aren’t on each other’s Christmas card list. The feud stems from when Ryan was coaching the Jets, and the two have gone head to head 15 times since 2009. Belichick and his Patriots have gotten the better of the series with Ryan’s teams, but that hasn’t stopped Rex from going off. And when the teams met earlier this year, you would have thought the Bills won the Super Bowl with their 16-0 win in Foxboro.
Sure it was a big win for the Bills, who evened their record at the time and bounced back from a 0-2 start. But the Patriots then are not the Patriots that will invade Buffalo on Sunday. That Week 4 tilt was the final game of Tom Brady’s Deflategate suspension and Jacoby Brissett was starting in place of Jimmy Garoppolo. Rob Gronkowski was still recovering from his injury and defensive leader Rob Ninkovich was serving out his suspension. Belichick didn’t say much after that Week 4 loss because he knew his club would be much closer to full strength for the rematch. They are, and the Pats will do their talking on the field.
Free ATS Pick
It’s hard to argue against the Patriots being the best team in the AFC right now. They continue to roll and Brady is as sharp as ever. While Brady gets all the headlines, the defense continues to shut down opponents and is likely the most underrated group in the NFL. The Pats just continue to win and will look back at the Week 4 beating at the hands of the Bills for inspiration.
The Bills enter this critical division showdown likely without two key pieces. McCoy is nursing a sore hamstring and his absence hinders Buffalo’s ability to run the football. Tyrod Taylor is good, but he’s not going to win a game when he has to throw the football for the team to have success. Williams is probably out, leaving the Bills secondary without its starting safety. Look for the Pats to exploit that by prominently featuring the tight end duo of Gronk and Martellus Bennett. The Patriots get their revenge and put more distance between themselves and the rest of the division, and they do it with an exclamation point.
NFL Odds: Patriots 31, Bills 20
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
