When the Denver Broncos last made a trip to the Bay Area, it was for that game in February that ends the NFL season. You know, the Super Bowl. While the stakes aren’t as high this time around, it’s still a huge contest against the Oakland Raiders with first place in the AFC West on the line. The Raiders are going to be sad playing their next four games at the dilapidated Coliseum, especially considering they haven’t lost a road game this season. The success hasn’t translated with only a 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS home record.
Watch this regular season Week 9 matchup live on Sunday, November 6, 2016, at 8:30 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Denver Broncos 0
Oakland Raiders 0
Over/Under 44
Odds Analysis
Sharp action on this one brought the line down to a pick em. Denver opened at -2.5 and saw nearly 70 percent of the early action, but the line tumbled. Oakland invaded Denver last season and stymied the Broncos with Brock Oswieler at quarterback. Apparently, more of the same is expected from the other 30 percent. But the Raiders don’t have much of home field edge and haven’t faced a defense like Denver’s in some time. The over is getting plenty of play but seems a bit high for my liking.
Injury Report
Devontae Booker – The rookie got his first start in place of C.J. Anderson, who was placed on injured reserve. Booker had a nice game but left Sunday’s contest with a shoulder injury. He did return, but it was more out of necessity since the Broncos had little backup help. This will be an injury to monitor as the week progresses since the Broncos need to run the football to have success on offense.
Sean Smith – The Raiders’ secondary may have taken a hit when Smith left the Tampa Bay game after just two plays with an apparent arm injury. He was landed on awkwardly and didn’t return. Oakland’s big free agent signing was a stabilizing force and had two picks for the improving group. His loss will open space for Denver’s talented receivers.
Matchup to Watch
One area that makes the Broncos so good on defense is their ability to get after the quarterback. The Raiders’ offensive line kept Derek Carr’s jersey spotless on Sunday and he responded with a franchise record 513 passing yards to dissect the Buccaneers. Something has to give when these teams hook up and the line play when the Raiders have the football will be a key in determining which team takes over sole possession of first place in the AFC West.
Denver led the NFL in sacks last season and the work propelled them to a Super Bowl title. Once again the Broncos are at it. They have the league’s best pass defense and are tied for the league lead with 26 sacks, reaching those totals without help from DeMarcus Ware. Now ware is back, making his return from an arm injury in a win over the Chargers and the defense has another weapon to harass opposing quarterbacks. Ware played on a limited snap count, but his reps are expected to increase and it couldn’t have come at a better time for the Broncos, who will work against an offensive line that has allowed the fewest sacks in the league so far.
Free ATS Pick
This is probably the biggest game in a number of years for the Raiders as they try to breakthrough for their first winning season and playoff berth since 2002. Let’s hold off on putting Derek Carr in the MVP conversation until he can get the Raiders a big win. Sure, the numbers were spectacular last week and the Raiders overcame 23 penalties to beat the Bucs in overtime. But the Bucs, and the Jaguars before them, aren’t quite in the same category as the Broncos. And keep in mind that all six of Oakland’s wins have come against teams without a winning record.
So the Raiders have done what they’re supposed to against the weaker teams and we could say they’ve had a cushy schedule. But they are winning games and that’s building confidence in a young group that’s ready to take the next step. The Broncos realize this and they are still the defending champs. It’s been a while since Oakland dealt with the type of defense Denver has and with Wade Phillips back at work, his game plan will frustrate Carr and the Raiders for a huge road win.
NFL Odds: Broncos 22, Raiders 18
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