Things have gotten so bad for the San Francisco 49ers that they even lost during their bye. At least that’s the joke around the Bay Area. But seriously, there’s never a bad time for an off-week when you’re struggling as bad as the Niners. They had an extra week to stew over their six-game losing streak and some clear heads and fresh bodies might help, but they are still the Niners, and trying to break that slide against the New Orleans Saints in Week 9 will be a difficult chore.
This matchup in Week 9 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, November 6, 2016, at 4:05 p.m. ET at Levi’s Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New Orleans Saints -3
San Francisco 49ers +3
Over/Under 52
Odds Analysis
For the first time since Week 3 New Orleans is favored to win a game. The Saints have embraced the role of underdog going 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS since that early game, but laying points has been a different story. The Saints are 0-2 SU and ATS when playing as the favored team. They are playing the Niners, who have lost their backers plenty of coin by going 0-6 ATS since opening the season with a win over Los Angeles. Two poor defenses and only one good offense have over bettors flocking to this one. The total spiked a point to its current 52 and that seems risky.
Injury Report
Aaron Lynch – Add another defender to San Francisco’s list of walking wounded. The group of linebackers thinned considerably with the loss of Ray-Ray Armstrong and NaVorro Bowman, now it looks like Lynch will miss this game with an ankle injury. The Niners own the NFL’s worst run defense and Lynch’s absence isn’t going to make things any better.
Key Stat
New Orleans deviated from its usual offensive game plan and went toe-to-toe with the Seahawks on Sunday. The normally pass-happy Saints figured they wouldn’t have success trying to throw the football against Seattle’s fearsome defense and used a strong ground game to control the clock, wear down the defense, and eventually come away with a hard-fought victory. One key stat that made the plan so successful was the Saints ability to convert on third down.
New Orleans extended drives by converting 9 of 15 third down chances and the Saints ran 18 more plays and had the ball for over 12 minutes longer than the Seahawks. But having success on third down isn’t anything new for the Saints, who have converted 51 percent of their chances to rank second in the league. We’ve seen San Francisco’s defense wilt being on the field for long stretches and the Saints success at turning third downs into first downs will not only wear the Niners down, it will deflate them as well. The Niners have issues of their own trying to stop drives and if they can’t stop the Saints, points will be plenty.
Free ATS Pick
Stringing some wins together along with improved play by the defense has the Saints on the cusp of entering the playoff conversation. And in a division that has no run-away winner, the top spot in the NFC South is also within reach. But if the Saints are going to enter the discussion, beating a bad 49ers team is a must. A letdown is possible coming off a huge win over the Seahawks and with matchups against the Broncos and Panthers next on the docket. The Saints defense still has plenty to prove and I don’t think they’ll allow the Niners too much.
San Francisco could get Carlos Hyde back for this one which will greatly improve their run game, and the Niners need to be able to run the football since nothing has worked through the air. The Saints will try to exploit San Francisco’s league-worst run defense which will more than likely be successful, but the ground attack from both sides will severely hamper the quick strike scores, putting the under in a good spot. There will be offense, with most of it coming from the visitors, but the total is just too high for my liking.
NFL Odds: Saints 27, 49ers 20
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