Jon Rahm and Sergio Garcia are co-favorites to win the Andalucia Valderrama Masters, which begins on Thursday in Spain. It is a very top-heavy field, as Rahm and Garcia are listed at +550 and then it drops to Shane Lowry, who is the third betting choice at +1450. Looking further, it is even more top-heavy as Soren Kjeldsen, Martin Kaymer and Joost Luiten are the only other golfers listed at odds of less than +4050. Let’s look at this event, odds and predictions.
The Andalucia Valderrama Masters Odds
Jon Rahm +550
Sergio Garcia +550
Shane Lowry +1450
Soren Kjeldsen +1650
Martin Kaymer +2050
Joost Luiten +2250
Andrew Johnston +4050
Andy Sullivan +4050
Gregory Bourdy +4050
Alejandro Canizares +4550
Nacho Elvira +4550
Matt Wallace +4550
Nino Bertasio +5050
Alexander Bjork +6650
Austin Connelly +6650
Gregory Havret +6650
Jamie Donaldson +6650
Joakim Lagergren +6650
Julian Suri +6650
Maximillian Kieffer +6650
Padraig Harrington +6650
Romain Wattel +6650
Stephen Gallacher +6650
Aaron Rai +8050
Adrian Otaegui +8050
Jorge Campillo +8050
Lee Slattery +8050
Mikko Ilonen +8050
Pablo Larrazabal +8050
Peter Hanson +8050
Robert Karlsson +8050
Thomas Detry +8050
Ashun Wu +8050
Felipe Aguilar +9050
Odds Analysis
Jon Rahm +550
Rahm has been looking forward to this event for a long time and it showed last week in Italy, as he struggled until the last round when he shot a 65 to move up to a tie for 15th. I don’t know that this course suits Rahm, as he has hit just half of his fairways in his last two starts but Rahm is so talented he might be able to get away with missing fairways and the field for this event is weak.
Sergio Garcia +550
It is easy to like Garcia’s chances this week, as he is the tournament host and he has played well at Valderrama in the past. He has 10 finishes in the Top 10 in 11 starts on the course. He has a win, three second place finishes, a third and a fourth. I think Garcia should be the sole favorite this week.
Shane Lowry +1450
Based on course history, Lowy has a chance, as he finished T18 in 2010 and T4 in 2011but based on current form there are concerns in backing Lowry. He missed the cut last week in Italy and hasn’t contended for a win in a long time. I think he is overvalued at these odds.
Soren Kjeldsen +1650
I give Kjeldsen a big chance in this event, as he has finishes of 4th, 49th, 2nd, 1st and 2nd in his last five visits to Valderrama. Kjeldsen has not played since August but he could contend this week.
Martin Kaymer +2050
Another contender this week should be Kaymer who has finishes of 6th, 2nd, 21st, 23rd and 6th in his last five starts at Valderrama. The concern is that Kaymer is not playing well, as he has missed the cut in two of his last four starts.
Joost Luiten +2250
Luiten finished tied for 5th in this event in 2010, missed the cut the next year but last year in the Open de Espana he finished second. The concern with Luiten is similar to what it is with Kaymer, and that is current form. Luiten has not finished in the top 10 in an even since June.
Alejandro Canizares +4550
The first of my two longshots is Canizares who is all about accuracy. He has finishes of 11th, 7th and 21st in his last three trips to Valderrama. He played well in Italy last week with a tie for 15th.
Nacho Elvira +4550
Nacho is 34th in driving accuracy and 18th in greens-in-regulation. He won a Challenge Tour event in Spain two years ago.
Course: Valderrama was extremely difficult a year ago, as Andrew Johnston won the 2016 Open de Espana by shooting a +1 over par. The course will look different, as there have been some major changes. All of the greens on the front nine have been redone along with the surrounding areas. The course is narrow and lined with trees and the greens are small, so it is all about accuracy for the players. The course is a par 71 that measures 6,991 yards.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel
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