The winter break is over for the European Tour, as players get back into action this week in South Africa. It is a top-heavy field in the BMW SA Open, with Branden Grace and Charl Schwartzel the clear favorites. Grace is listed at odds of +600, while Schwartel is +650. Only one other golfer is listed at odds of less than +2350 and that is Dylan Frittelli at odds of +1650. Let’s look at the tournament and predictions.
BMW SA Open Odds
Branden Grace +600
Charl Schwartzel +650
Dylan Frittelli +1650
Dean Burmester +2350
George Coetzee +2850
Jordan Smith +2850
Soren Kjeldsen +2850
James Morrison +3350
Matthieu Pavon +3350
Shaun Norris +3350
Brandon Stone +4050
Chris Wood +4050
Erik Van Rooyen +4050
Haydn Porteous +4050
Jason Scrivener +4050
Richard Sterne +4050
Andy Sullivan +5050
Lucas Bjerregaard +5050
Matt Wallace +5050
Thomas Aiken +5050
Thomas Detry +5050
Aaron Rai +6650
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6650
Darren Fichardt +6650
Graeme Storm +6650
Jamie Donaldson +6650
Marc Warren +6650
Mikko Korhonen +6650
Nacho Elvira +6650
Retief Goosen +6650
Clement Sordet +8050
David Drysdale +8050
Jeff Winther +8050
Lee Slattery +8050
Ricardo Gouveia +8050
Sam Horsfield +8050
Tapio Pulkkanen +8050
Trevor Fisher +8050
Odds Analysis
Branden Grace +600
Grace is a deserving favorite, as he won the Nedbank Golf Challenge, the last co-sanctioned event in South Africa and he has done well in the past at Glendower. He was fourth in 2016 and tied for 15th in 2015. He has three wins, a second, a third and two fourths in his last 11 starts in South Africa.
Charl Schwartzel +650
Schwartzel has done well at Glendower in the past with a fourth and a second. The recent form of Schwartzel is a concern, as he didn’t play well to end 2017. Maybe he turns things around this week, but I think he is extremely overvalued at these odds.
Dylan Frittelli +1650
Frittelli is one of the young South African stars, as he finished 19th in the Race to Dubai last season. He is already up to third in this year’s standings after winning the Mauritius Open. The only concern is that he has two missed cuts with an 18th place finish in three tries at Glendower.
Dean Burmester +2350
I think Burmester has some value at these odds, as he is a big bomber who was 8th in driving distance last season. He has a fourth and a tenth place finish at Glendower. If Grace doesn’t win, then Burmester should have a good chance.
Matthieu Pavon +3350
He missed the cut in this event last year, but he is a far better player now. He has four top 20 finishes since November including a solid finish at the Nedbank Golf Challenge.
Haydn Porteous +4050
It is easy to like Porteous, as he already won in South Africa at the Joburg Open. He tied for 12th in his most recent SA start at the Nedbank Golf Challenge. I think Porteous has some value at these odds.
Brandon Stone +4050
My other longshot this week is Stone who won this event in 2016. He finished 2017 in poor form, but Stone made some changes to his swing and said that he is ready to go.
Course: Glendower Golf Club in the City of Ekurhuleni, Gauteng, South Africa will host this event. It is a long course that measures 7,594 yards but because it is located about 5,000 feet above sea level the ball flies farther than it would elsewhere. The course is lined with trees and water is in play on 11 of the 18 holes. Last year’s winner, Graeme Storm shot 18-under par, while two years ago the winner was Brandon Stone at 14-under par.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel
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