It is a top heavy field this week in the European Masters, as only two players are listed at odds of less than +2500. Alex Noren and Tommy Fleetwood are the top two betting choices at odds of just over +1100. Noren is the highest ranked player in the field at No. 12 in the world and he is also the defending champion, while Fleetwood leads the Race to Dubai standings. We went 4-1 last week with the matchup picks in the Czech Masters. Let’s look at the odds and picks for this week’s European Masters.
European Masters Matchup Odds at BookMaker.eu
A Noren -116 vs. T. Fleetwood
A. Noren -139 vs. B. Wiesberger
T. Fleetwood -138 vs. B. Wiesberger
M. Fitzpatrick -115 vs. L. Westwood
M. Fitzpatrick -136 vs. R. Fisher
L. Westwood -136 vs. R. Fisher
J. Smith -122 vs. R. Ramsay
A. Levy -133 vs. R. Ramsay
A. Levy -126 vs. J. Smith
T. Hatton -178 vs. A. Otaegui
C. Wood -130 vs. R. Fox
D. Horsey -135 vs. P. Dunne
J. Donaldson -130 vs. H. Porteous
J. Suri -150 vs. T. Detry
J. Luiten -169 vs. C. Shinkwin
S. Hend -123 vs. B. Hebert
M. Lorenzo-Vera -145 vs. P. Larrazabal
V. Dubuisson -129 vs. A. Wall
R. Bland -135 vs. L. Donald
D. Frittelli -149 vs. T. Lewis
B. Dredge -120 vs. L. Slattery
R. Sterne -134 vs. R. Rock
M. Jimenez -140 vs. D. Willett
N. Elvira -119 vs. T. Jaidee
R. Paratore -126 vs. D. Lipsky
European Masters Matchup Picks
Before we get to the picks there are a few things to consider. Crans-sur-Sierre is course that is not long, so unlike last week we won’t be focusing on driving distance. Accuracy off the tee is the big key along with greens in regulation. Birdies should be plentiful, as the winning score has averaged 16-under par the last five years. The list of recent winners sure were not bombers, as Noren won it last year, Danny Willett in 2015, David Lipsky in 2014, and Thomas Bjorn has won this event twice.
T. Hatton -178 vs. A. Otaegui
The price on Hatton is high, but he is one of the top ranked players in the field at No. 30 in the world. He has not played well lately, missing the cut in his last five events, so why is he such a big favorite? He has played well in this event in the past with a tie for third in 2015 and a solo third in 2015. Otaegui is ranked just 142nd in the world, so this should be a matchup win for Hatton.
C. Wood -130 vs. R. Fox
Wood has taken the last three weeks off since playing well in the PGA Championship. He seems to have put his wrist issues behind him and when healthy he is very good. He tied for 2nd at the Nordea Masters and tied for 4th at the China Open. He has made 12 of 16 cuts and his greens in regulation stats are excellent. He is the clear choice in this matchup against Fox who is ranked outside the Top 100 in the world and who is awful in terms of driving accuracy, at 219th on the European Tour.
J. Smith -122 vs. R. Ramsay
Smith has made 10 straight cuts including a tie for 9th at the PGA. He has a lot of very good stats in his favor, as he is fourth in driving accuracy, 12th in distance, and 13th in greens in regulation. I know Ramsay has won this event in the past but right now Smith is the better player.
D. Horsey -135 vs. P. Dunne
Horsey is 62nd on the European Tour in driving accuracy, while Dunne is just 207th. Driving accuracy is our key stat of the week, and we have a good advantage in this matchup.
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