Jon Rahm leads the field for the Italian Open, which begins on Thursday. Rahm is a solid favorite to win this event but he should get some competition, as many of Europe’s top players are in the field. 14 of the top 20 in the Race to Dubai standings are expected to compete. We’ll look to improve upon last week’s 2-3 record in the matchups, as we have five plays this week, including two underdogs. Let’s look at the odds and picks for this week’s Italian Open.
Italian Open Matchup Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jon Rahm -137 vs. Sergio Garcia
Jon Rahm -140 vs. Francesco Molinari
Sergio Garcia -120 vs. Francesco Molinari
Tyrrell Hatton -180 vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick
Tyrrell Hatton -165 vs. Alexander Noren
Matthew Fitzpatrick -115 vs. Alexander Noren
Tommy Fleetwood -120 vs. Shane Lowry
Tommy Fleetwood -135 vs. Bernd Wiesberger
Shane Lowry -135 vs. Bernd Wiesberger
Ross Fisher -135 vs. Paul Dunne
Martin Kaymer -140 vs. Lee Westwood
David Lingmerth -135 vs. Marc Warren
George Coetzee -120 vs. Alexander Levy
Eddie Pepperell -125 vs. Graeme McDowell
Thorbjorn Olesen -145 vs. Luke Donald
Joost Luiten -135 vs. Victor Dubuisson
Lucas Bjerregaard -120 vs. David Horsey
Andy Sullivan -130 vs. Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Joakim Lagergren -130 vs. Hideto Tanihara
Richie Ramsay -115 vs. Graeme Storm
Italian Open Matchup Picks
Before we get to the picks there are a few things to consider. This course is a par 71 and really pretty short at 7,159 yards. Accuracy off the tee will be more important than distance on this course, so driving accuracy will be our key stat to consider as we take a look at the matchups.
Francesco Molinari +110 vs. Jon Rahm
Molinari is very good in terms of driving accuracy, ranking 9th, while Rahm was just 120th in driving accuracy on the PGA Tour last season. Molinari also is the defending champion of this event, while Rahm will be making his first appearance. I also think Rahm could be looking ahead to next week’s Andaluca Masters in his home country of Spain. I will take Molinari at plus money in this matchup.
Tommy Fleetwood -120 vs. Shane Lowry
Fleetwood is excellent in terms of driving accuracy, ranking sixth, while Lowery is a poor 117th in accuracy. Fleetwood has played well in this event the last two years, finishing tied for 33rd and tied for 7th. I think Fleetwood will contend for the win overall in this event, so I will lay the small price and take him.
Martin Kaymer -140 vs. Lee Westwood
This is another key stat matchup for the week, as Kaymer is 18th in terms of driving accuracy, while Westwood is just 74th. Kaymer nearly won this event two years ago and last year he finished 20th, so he does have an affinity for playing this event. I will lay the price and take Kaymer in this matchup.
Matthew Fitzpatrick +150 vs. Tyrrell Hatton
I am really surprised at the number in this matchup. I know Hatton won last week but it is really hard to win in back-to-back weeks and Fitzpatrick dominates our key statistic this week, as he ranks 29th in driving accuracy, while Hatton is 144th. Fitzpatrick has been good in Italy in his career, as he tied for 3rd in 2015 and he finished 16th last year. I will take the plus money on Fitzpatrick in this matchup.
Matthew Fitzpatrick -115 vs. Alexander Noren
I am also taking Fitzpatrick in this matchup. He has shot par or better in all eight of his previous rounds at Golf Club Milano. As noted earlier, he is 29th in accuracy. Noren is just 112th in driving accuracy. I will lay the small price and take Fitzpatrick in this matchup.
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