Seven of the top ten in the Race to Dubai rankings are in the field for the Italian Open, which begins on Thursday at Golf Club Milano. Tommy Fleetwood leads the Race to Dubai but he is not the favorite this week, as Jon Rahm is the solid favorite at odds of +650, while Sergio Garcia is the second choice at odds of +1550. Francesco Molinari and Tyrrell Hatton are co-third choices at +1650, while Fleetwood and Alex Noren are next at +2250. Let’s look at this event, odds and predictions.
Italian Open Odds
Jon Rahm +650
Sergio Garcia +1550
Francesco Molinari +1650
Tyrrell Hatton +1650
Alex Noren +2250
Tommy Fleetwood +2250
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2550
Ross Fisher +2850
Shane Lowry +2850
Bernd Wiesberger +3350
Paul Dunne +3350
David Lingmerth +4050
Eddie Pepperell +4050
Lee Westwood +4050
Martin Kaymer +4050
Alexander Levy +5050
George Coetzee +5050
Graeme McDowell +5050
Luke Donald +5050
Marc Warren +5050
Victor Dubuisson +5050
Lucas Bjerregaard +6050
Andy Sullivan +6650
David Horsey +6650
Joakim Lagergren +6650
Joost Luiten +6650
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +6650
Thorbjorn Olesen +6650
Danny Willett +8050
Fabrizio Zanotti +8050
Graeme Storm +8050
Hideto Tanihara +8050
Julian Suri +8050
Nacho Elvira +8050
Nicolas Colsaerts +8050
Richie Ramsay +8050
Romain Wattel +8050
Stephen Gallacher +8050
Odds Analysis
Jon Rahm +650
Rahm is third in the Race to Dubai and he is getting a lot of love from the oddsmakers at +650. He has the talent to win this event and he was really good in the FedExCup Playoffs but I think he is overvalued at these odds. This is also a look-ahead week for Rahm, as next week he heads back home to play in the Andalucia Valderrama Masters.
Sergio Garcia +1550
Sergio has never played as a pro in Italy. This will be his 11th start in Europe this season and he is second in the Race to Dubai. He really hasn’t played that well for a couple of months and I think he is overvalued at these odds.
Francesco Molinari +1650
Molinari will look to defend his title this week. He has won this event twice and he is currently seventh in the Race to Dubai. He tied for 12th in his last start at the BMW Championship, so he comes in playing well. I expect him to be in the mix for the win this week.
Tyrrell Hatton +1650
Hatton is coming off a win in Scotland last week. He is definitely capable of continued success, as last year he followed up his win at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship with a tie for 9th in this next event. The only concern is that he tied for 45th last year.
Alex Noren +2250
Noren is 5th in the Race to Dubai and he has a win and four other top 10 finishes this season. The concern in backing Noren is that he has not played well in this event in the past with three missed cuts.
Tommy Fleetwood +2250
The Race to Dubai leader was rolling last week for two rounds and then stunk it up with a 76 on Saturday. He is very capable of bouncing back this week with a great tournament and he likes this course, as he finished tied for 7th last year. I think he has a lot of value at +2250.
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2550
Fitzpatrick surprised last week by playing well on the links in Scotland, tying for 15th. He has played well in this event in the past with a tie for 3rd in 2015 and a tie for 16th last year. He could contend for the win this time around.
David Lingmerth +4050
This will be the eighth European Tour start for Lingmerth this season and he has four top 25 finishes. He is a player who can shoot low, as he shot a 62 at Close House this season. I think he is a live dog at +4050.
Alexander Levy +5050
The first of my two longshots this week is Levy who tied for 7th in this event last year. He held the lead at one point in the third round last year. He is capable of getting hot and making a lot of birdies, which is what is needed to win this event.
Graeme McDowell +5050
He won this event in 2004 but hasn’t played it since 2005. He played well last week, tying for 15th in Scotland and I think he could contend this week at big odds.
Course: The Italian Open will be held at Golf Club Milano, one of the best courses in Italy. The course features flat terrain but trees line all of the holes. It is a par 71 that measures 7,156 yards. The fairways are narrow but birdie opportunities are plentiful. Molinari won last year by shooting 22-under par and two years ago it was Rikard Karlberg shooting 19-under par.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel
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