The last chance for golfers to make up ground before next week’s DP World Tour Championship in Dubai is the Nedbank Golf Challenge in South Africa. Tyrrell Hatton has a chance to move up, as the three of the top four in the standings, Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia and Jon Rahm are all taking the week off. Hatton is the top choice to win in South Africa at odds of +1350, while Branden Grace, Louis Oosthuizen and Ross Fisher are the co-second choice at odds of +1650. Let’s look at this event, odds and predictions.
Nedbank Golf Challenge Odds
Tyrrell Hatton +1350
Branden Grace +1650
Louis Oosthuizen +1650
Ross Fisher +1650
Matthew Fitzpatrick +1750
Francesco Molinari +1850
Tommy Fleetwood +2050
Shane Lowry +2050
Alex Noren +2250
Rafa Cabrera Bello +2250
Charl Schwartzel +2550
Joost Luiten +2500
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +2550
Peter Uihlein +2550
Bernd Wiesberger +3050
George Coetzee +3050
Thorbjorn Olesen +3050
Eddie Pepperell +3550
Ian Poulter +3550
Chris Wood +4050
Nicolas Colsaerts +4050
Julian Suri +4550
Lee Westwood +4550
Victor Dubuisson +4550
Alexander Levy +5050
Paul Dunne +5050
Soren Kjeldsen +5050
Dylan Frittelli +5550
Martin Kaymer +6050
Padraig Harrington +6050
David Horsey +6550
Andy Sullivan +7550
Marc Warren +7550
Matthew Southgate +8550
Fabrizio Zanotti +9050
Jeunghun Wang +9050
Lucas Bjerregaard +9050
Richie Ramsay +9050
Haydn Porteous +9550
Jordan Smith +9550
Matt Wallace +9550
Odds Analysis
Tyrrell Hatton +1350
Hatton finished tied for 11th and tied for 16th in the last two weeks. He tied for 25th on this course last year. I think Hatton is extremely overvalued at these odds, as he is not one of the top players in the world and yet he is listed as the favorite in this event.
Branden Grace +1650
Grace has been really good at home with two wins, and four other top four finishes. He finished third in this event last year and he was fourth in 2015. I think you can make a case for him being the favorite this week.
Louis Oosthuizen +1650
Oosthuizen is an interesting choice for this week. He has been solid in his home country with a tie for 9th in this event last year and he also won on this course in 2007. The problem I have with taking him is that you never know what you are going to get with him. He did finish in a tie for second at the PGA Championship but faltered as the FedExCup Playoffs progressed.
Ross Fisher +1650
Fisher is another player with good form in South Africa, as he won the Tshwane Open in 2014 and he finished second in this event in 2014. He didn’t play well in China but he could bounce back strongly in South Africa.
Matthew Fitzpatrick +1750
Fitzpatrick is in solid form with six straight top 15 finishes. He tied for fifth in the South African Open in 2015 and he was 16th in this event last year.
Francesco Molinari +1850
Molinari has been a disappointment of late, as he finished in a tie for 46th in China after a rotten opening round of 77. He was 12th in this event in 2013.
Tommy Fleetwood +2050
The Race to Dubai leader hasn’t contended in a while, as he looks to be just trying to hang onto his points lead rather than going for the win. This is his chance to make a huge statement before Dubai and I think he is undervalued at odds of +2050.
Rafa Cabrera Bello +2250
I think there is a lot of value on Cabrera Bello this week. I know he didn’t play this event that well last year, as he tied for 55th, but he is playing well right now with three straight top 11 finishes. His game is really suited to this course, as he is strong in GIR and in scrambling.
Course: Gary Player Country Club is a course that features narrow fairways and small greens. Water is a factor on the holes 9, 17 and 18. The course played tough last year as most of the field struggled. Alex Noren was the only player to shoot in double-digits, as he finished 14-under par. The previous three years it was much easier, as the winners shot 19, 18 and 20-under par. It is all about hitting greens and scrambling on this course.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel
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