A strong field is assembled for the Omega Dubai Desert Classic, which begins on Thursday. Rory McIlroy is listed as the favorite at odds of +450, while Sergio Garcia is the second choice at +750. Last week’s winner Tommy Fleetwood is also in the field, and he is listed as the third choice in the betting at +1050. McIlroy and Garcia have won this event in two of the last three years. Let’s look at the tournament and predictions.
Omega Dubai Desert Classic Odds
Rory McIlroy +450
Sergio Garcia +750
Tommy Fleetwood +1050
Henrik Stenson +1250
Matthew Fitzpatrick +1850
Branden Grace +2250
Rafa Cabrera Bello +2550
Ross Fisher +2550
Thomas Pieters +2550
Tyrrell Hatton +2550
Louis Oosthuizen +3050
Pat Perez +3050
Bernd Wiesberger +3350
Martin Kaymer +4550
Byeong Hun An +5050
Dylan Frittelli +5050
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +5050
Thorbjorn Olesen +5550
Alexander Levy +6050
Paul Dunne +6550
Stephen Gallacher +6550
Chris Paisley +6650
Thomas Detry +7050
Ian Poulter +8050
Joost Luiten +8050
Lee Westwood +8550
Odds Analysis
Rory McIlroy +450
I would have kicked myself had Rory won last week’s event, as I didn’t have him at the top of my list. That changes this week, as Rory was in fine form last week and he has played well in this event in the past. Rory won his first European Tour event on this course in 2009 and he has never finished outside the top 10. I would prefer higher odds, but I like Rory this week regardless of the price.
Sergio Garcia +750
Sergio won in Singapore last week by five shots and he is the defending champion, so it is hard to argue with him as a top contender this week. I think he is a bit overvalued at these odds, but he can’t be ignored.
Tommy Fleetwood +1050
Fleetwood proved last week that last season was no fluke. Fleetwood simply dominated in the final round with a 65. He hasn’t been nearly as good in this event, with his best finish a tie for 10th in 2013. I almost never back a player to win in consecutive weeks and I won’t be backing Fleetwood this week.
Henrik Stenson +1250
Stenson finished strong last week with a 65 to finish in a tie for 8th. He won this event in 2007 and I think he is undervalued at these odds. McIlroy and Stenson are my top picks to win this week.
Matthew Fitzpatrick +1850
Fitzpatrick closed well last week in Abu Dhabi and he tied for 3rd. He finished fifth in this event a year ago, and considering his putting it would not be a surprise if he challenges for the win this week.
Branden Grace +2250
This has not been a good event for Grace, as he has never finished in the Top 50 in three tries. I have to put him on the list this week because of the value, as he is listed at odds of +2250.
Dylan Frittelli +5050
I am definitely going to start paying attention to Frittelli. He tied for 19th last week and he tied for 4th in the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai. He has seven top 20 finishes in his last nine starts. He is the first of my two longshots this week.
Stephen Gallacher +6550
I can’t ignore Gallacher on this course and we get him at big odds. He won this event in 2013 and in 2014. He tied for 9th last year and even though he didn’t finish that well last week in Abu Dhabi, he did have two rounds in the 60’s.
Course: Emirates Golf Club has hosted this tournament since 1989 except in 1999 and 2000. It is a part 72 that measures 7,328 yards. Water is a factor on 10 of the 18 holes, while the greens are Tiff Eagle Bermuda. Scoring has normally been excellent on this course, although strong winds can be a factor. The weather looks good for the first three rounds this week, while the winds should pick up for Sunday.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel
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