Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy are co-favorites to win the Open Championship, which begins on Thursday at Royal Birkdale in Southport, England. This looks to be a wide open major, as seven players are listed with odds of less than +2000. Unlike last year, when Henrik Stenson blitzed the Royal Troon course, players will have a much tougher test on the links at Royal Birkdale. Let’s look at Open Championship odds, notes and predictions.
Open Championship Odds
Dustin Johnson +1415
Rory McIlroy +1415
Jon Rahm +1615
Jordan Spieth +1616
Sergio Garcia +1616
Rickie Fowler +1718
Hideki Matsuyama +1815
Justin Rose +2050
Tommy Fleetwood +2249
Henrik Stenson +2252
Jason Day +3054
Adam Scott +3054
Paul Casey +3255
Brooks Koepka +3556
Phil Mickelson +4482
Alex Noren +4550
Louis Oosthuizen +4550
Justin Thomas +4833
Thomas Pieters +5250
Marc Leishman +5250
Rafael Cabrera Bello +5250
Matt Kuchar +5250
Branden Grace +5550
Lee Westwood +6550
Patrick Reed +6550
Francesco Molinari +6550
Padraig Harrington +7050
Bernd Wiesberger +7250
Zach Johnson +8050
Brandt Snedeker +8050
Shane Lowry +8050
Chris Wood +8050
Ian Poulter +8050
Tyrrell Hatton +8550
Charl Schwartzel +10250
Matthew Fitzpatrick +10250
Martin Kaymer +10250
Thorbjorn Olesen +10250
Ross Fisher +10250
Daniel Berger +10250
Soren Kjeldsen +10500
J B Holmes +12500
Jason Dufner +12500
Byeong Hun An +12500
Andy Sullivan +12550
Kevin Kisner +12550
Bill Haas +15000
Emiliano Grillo +15000
Kevin Chappell +15000
Russell Henley +15000
Andrew Johnston +15000
Bubba Watson +15000
Steve Stricker +15000
Cameron Smith +20000
Jimmy Walker +20000
Billy Horschel +20000
Russell Knox +20000
Joost Luiten +20000
Gary Woodland +20000
Ryan Moore +20000
Si Woo Kim +20250
Charley Hoffman +20250
Anirban Lahiri +25000
Danny Willett +25000
Stewart Cink +25000
William McGirt +25000
Ernie Els +25000
Odds Analysis
Dustin Johnson +1415
Johnson is still ranked No. 1 in the world but he hasn’t played well of late and hasn’t even made the weekend in any tournament since May. It is hard to make a case for him as the favorite.
Rory McIlroy +1415
I have no idea why McIlroy is listed as the co-favorite. He simply hasn’t played enough competitive golf of late, and his form is awful, as he didn’t even make the cut at the Irish Open or the Scottish Open. I am looking elsewhere.
Jon Rahm +1615
One of the hot picks to win this week is Rahm who looked great in winning the Irish Open. The concern about taking him at Royal Birkdale is that experienced players are usually the ones that win on this course.
Jordan Spieth +1616
Spieth is coming off his dramatic win at Hartford, so he does have some momentum. The concern with backing Spieth is that he still hasn’t gotten his putter going.
Sergio Garcia +1616
Sergio won his first major at the Masters and he might just get his second in the Open. It happened in 1998 when Mark O’Meara won his first major at the Masters and his second at Royal Birkdale. You can make a case that Sergio should be the favorite.
Rickie Fowler +1718
My top choice to win this week is Fowler who looks poised to finally win his first major. He is almost always in contention in marquee events and he prepped by playing last week in Scotland.
Hideki Matsuyama +1815
A lot of people believe that Matsuyama is going to win a major soon. I am not convinced quite yet. He hasn’t really thrived in pressure situations and I think he is a little behind Fowler.
Tommy Fleetwood +2249
The home favorite is definitely Fleetwood who grew up playing on this course. Fleetwood is having a super 2017 and he learned all about the pressure, as he was in contention in the U.S. Open.
Paul Casey +3255
Casey is one of my two longshots this week. He tied for 7th at Royal Birkdale in 2008. He is playing well this year with a 6th place finish in the Masters and he tied for 5th in the Travelers.
Alex Noren +4550
Noren didn’t play well in the Scottish Open but he does have a win and two other top 15 finishes in his last six starts. He has played well in the wind in the past including a tie for 9th at the 2012 Open.
Course: Royal Birkdale is a par 70 that measures 7,156 yards. It has been around since 1889 and hosted the Open for the first time in 1940. The course has hosted the Open nine times and the list of winners includes Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, Tom Watson and Johnny Miller.
TV Coverage: NBC and Golf Channel
Notes: Something has to give at the Open Championship, as eight of the last ten champions were 35 or older, but young players have been thriving this season on the PGA Tour, as the past six winners have been 23, 23, 29, 23, 27 and 24 years old. Seven of the last nine times the Open has been held at Royal Birkdale, the winner finished in the top six in the previous year’s Open and if you are looking for one stat to focus on for this year’s Open it might just be scrambling.
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