Padraig Harrington will look to become the first player to defend his title in the Portugal Masters, which begins on Thursday. This will be the 11th edition of the Portugal Masters and eight of the previous ten winners are in the field. Harrington is listed as a longshot to win this week at odds of +5000, well behind Thomas Pieters who is listed as the favorite at odds of +1406. Shane Lowry is the second choice in the betting at odds of +1616. We aced last week’s PGA matchups, but we were just 2-3 with the European matchups in the KLM Open. Let’s look at the odds and picks for this week’s Portugal Masters.
Portugal Masters Matchup Odds at BookMaker.eu
Shane Lowry -130 vs. Thomas Pieters
Andy Sullivan -125 vs. Thomas Pieters
Shane Lowry -120 vs. Andy Sullivan
Thorbjorn Olesen -158 vs. Eddie Pepperell
Kiradech Aphibarnrat -119 vs. Thorbjorn Olesen
George Coetzee -127 vs. Russell Knox
Haotong Li -126 vs. Ryan Fox
David Lingmerth -129 vs. Haydn Porteous
Joost Luiten -148 vs. Richard Sterne
Padraig Harrington -126 vs. Lucas Bjerregaard
S Gallacher -136 vs. Lee Slattery
Adrian Otaegui -133 vs. C Shinkwin
Tom Lewis -135 vs. Thomas Detry
Mikko Korhonen -145 vs. Robert Rock
Dean Burmester -150 vs. Austin Connelly
Nacho Elvira -115 vs. Victor Dubuisson
Matt Wallace -130 vs. A Wu
Bradley Dredge -150 vs. Aaron Rai
BMW Championship Matchup Picks
Before we get to the picks there are a few things to consider. The Dom Pedro Victoria in Vilamoura, Portugal was designed by Arnold Palmer and it is considered a relatively easy course. It has generous fairways and large greens. Scoring has been low almost every year, with 23-under par winning the last two years. Distance off the tee and scrambling are the two stats we’ll focus on this week.
Dean Burmester -150 vs. Austin Connelly
One of our key stats this week is distance off the tee and Burmester has a solid advantage against Connelly. Burmester is 12th on the European Tour hitting it just over 305 yards, while Connelly is 22 yards behind him on average at just over 283 yards. I know Connelly played well last week at the KLM Open but this is a different course and I think Burmester has the edge in this matchup.
George Coetzee -127 vs. Russell Knox
Coetzee has far more European experience than Knox and he also hits the ball farther, as he averages just over 304 yards per drive, while Knox is at 288 yards. It also doesn’t hurt that Coetzee has finished third and sixth in this event in the past and that he played well in Holland last week. I will lay the short price and take Coetzee in this matchup.
David Lingmerth -129 vs. Haydn Porteous
These two are both long hitters but there is a definite difference in terms of their scrambling stats, as Lingmerth ranks 6th on the European Tour, while Porteous is 148th. I think that will be the difference in this matchup, so I will lay the price and take Lingmerth.
Mikko Korhonen -145 vs. Robert Rock
Another matchup I am going with this week is one where the scrambling stats are heavily in favor of one player. Korhonen is 22nd on the European Tour in scrambling, while Rock is just 189th. I will lay the price in this matchup and take Korhonen.
Joost Luiten -148 vs. Richard Sterne
The last matchup for this week is one in which I am looking for a bounce back. Luiten simply laid an egg last week in front of his home fans in the Netherlands and he should want to rebound with a good event. I will lay the price and take Luiten in this matchup.
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