Dustin Johnson leads a strong field for the WGC-HSBC Champions, which begins on Thursday in China. Johnson is ranked No. 1 in the world and he won this event in 2013, but he hasn’t finished in the top 15 in a tournament since he won The Northern Trust in August. Johnson is listed at odds of +850, while Hideki Matsuyama is the second choice in the betting odds at +1050. Let’s look at this event, odds and predictions.
WGC-HSBC Champions Odds
Dustin Johnson +850
Hideki Matsuyama +1050
Jason Day +1850
Jon Rahm +1850
Justin Rose +1850
Marc Leishman +1850
Brooks Koepka +2050
Patrick Cantlay +2050
Paul Casey +2050
Francesco Molinari +2550
Henrik Stenson +2550
Tyrrell Hatton +2550
Phil Mickelson +2850
Ross Fisher +2850
Pat Perez +3050
Matt Kuchar +3350
Tommy Fleetwood +3350
Tony Finau +3350
Xander Schauffele +3350
Matthew Fitzpatrick +3550
Patrick Reed +3550
Daniel Berger +4550
Adam Scott +5050
Alex Noren +5550
Rafa Cabrera Bello +5550
Branden Grace +6050
Russell Henley +6050
Thomas Pieters +6550
Bill Haas +7050
Chez Reavie +7050
Bernd Wiesberger +7550
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +7550
Brian Harman +8050
Charl Schwartzel +8050
Paul Dunne +8050
Thorbjorn Olesen +8050
Kyle Stanley +9050
Peter Uihlein +9050
Odds Analysis
Dustin Johnson +850
Johnson definitely has the length off the tee to win this tournament, as he did in 2013, but I think he is overvalued as the favorite simply because he hasn’t been in great form the last couple of months.
Hideki Matsuyama +1050
Matsuyama blitzed the field last year to win this tournament by seven shots. I think he has some value at these odds but with Matsuyama it is oftentimes all or nothing. Is this the all week?
Jason Day +1850
Day played well last week, finishing tied for 11th in Korea. He seems to be trending the right way, but I am still not sold he has solved all of his problems and until he really contends for a win I am not taking him.
Jon Rahm +1850
I think there is a ton of value in taking Rahm to win this week. Distance off the tee is huge on this course in China and Rahm sure has that. He flopped last week in Spain but that poor effort should motivate him even more this week.
Justin Rose +1850
Rose has played this event four times previously, with two good finishes, a tie for 7th and a tie for 5th, and two poor outings. He did play well in the FedExCup Playoffs with four top ten finishes.
Ross Fisher +2850
The first of my three longshots this week is Fisher, as he has tied for 3rd and tied for 6th in the last two years in this event. He has a lot of value at odds of +2850 and it would not be a surprise if he contends for the win this week.
Tommy Fleetwood +3350
Fleetwood has three top three finishes at Genzon and his distance helps at Sheshan. Fleetwood always seems to start well at Sheshan, as he is in the top 10 after the first round but then he fades. This could be the year he contends the entire way.
Branden Grace +6050
I am throwing a big longshot in this week in Grace who tied for 15th last week in the CJ Cup. Grace has played well in China in the past, as he won the China Open in 2012.
Course: Sheshan International Golf Club is a par 72 that measures 7,261 yards. Distance off the tee is a key, as Johnson took advantage of the par 4’s and par 5’s in 2013, Bubba Watson dominated the par 5’s in 2014 and Matsuyama played the longer holes extremely well last season. The course is lined with trees and features Bentgrass greens. Matsuyama won this event a year ago by shooting 23-under par, while Johnson shot 24-under par in 2013.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel
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