It is almost unheard of for a player ranked No. 149 in the World Golf Rankings to be listed as a favorite to win a tournament, but this week that is the case, as Tiger Woods is favored to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational which starts on Thursday. Woods has played much better recently and was in contention last week at the Valspar Championship but was beaten by Paul Casey. Woods is getting a ton of attention in terms of golf odds, but many people are forgetting that this is not the same Tiger Woods of years ago. We are coming off a 1-1-1 week with the matchups at the Valspar Championship. Let’s look at the odds and picks for this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Matchup Odds
Tiger Woods -135 vs. Jason Day
Tiger Woods -140 vs. Justin Rose
Rory McIlroy -125 vs. Tommy Fleetwood
Rory McIlroy -110 vs. Rickie Fowler
Tommy Fleetwood -110 vs. Rickie Fowler
Tyrrell Hatton -120 vs. Hideki Matsuyama
Alex Noren -110 vs. Henrik Stenson
Adam Scott -110 vs. Bubba Watson
Patrick Reed -130 vs. Marc Leishman
Brian Harman -150 vs. Kevin Na
Luke List -110 vs. Louis Oosthuizen
Jason Kokrak -125 vs. Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Emiliano Grillo -115 vs. Brandt Snedeker
Zach Johnson -125 vs. Jamie Lovemark
Arnold Palmer Invitational Matchup Picks
Before we get to the picks there are a few things to consider. Bay Hill is a very fair course that doesn’t really favor any particular statistic. Last year, the leaders in distance, accuracy, GIR and scrambling all finished in the top six. One interesting stat from last year was bogey avoidance, as eight of the 11 golfers who finished in the top 10 in that stat finished in the top 10 in the tournament.
Jason Day +105 vs. Tiger Woods
I said this in the golf odds preview for this event that I don’t think Tiger should be listed as the favorite in this tournament. Everyone is jumping on the bandwagon and believing that the old Tiger Woods is back. I don’t see it. He is definitely playing better, but everything fell into play for him last week and he still didn’t win. Now he has to deal with Jason Day who leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting. Day also won this event two years ago. I will take Day at plus money in this matchup.
Tommy Fleetwood -105 vs. Rory McIlroy
Fleetwood just continues to prove he can play with the top players in the world. He leads the PGA Tour in birdies-or-better percentage and he is fourth in adjusted scoring. McIlroy has yet to play well this year and he is a go-against right now.
Luke List -110 vs. Louis Oosthuizen
I continue to back List and although it didn’t work out last week, he still played well. Oosthuizen is playing better than I expected, but I still think List is the better player at this point in their respective careers. I will take List in this matchup.
Emiliano Grillo -115 vs. Brandt Snedeker
Grillo led last week after two rounds in India and then faded to sixth. He has three top 15 finishes in his last four starts. Snedeker faded badly in the final round last week at the Valspar and this week his lack of distance will really hurt him. I like Grillo in this matchup.
Brian Harman -150 vs. Kevin Na
Harman last played in Mexico where he tied for 5th and he led the field in total distances of putts made. He has five top five finishes this season and he has three previous top 20 finishes at Bay Hill. Na pulled out of last week’s event late and I don’t see him contending this week.
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Mobilebetting lines are updated by the minute so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action atBookMaker.eu. The Arnold Palmer Invitational is scheduled for March 15-17, 2018. Bay Hill Club & Lodge will host the event and NBC and Golf Channel will televise it.
