Rory McIlroy will look to stay hot and win the BMW Championship which begins on Thursday at Crooked Stick Golf Club just outside of Indianapolis. McIlroy blitzed the field in the final two rounds of last week’s Deutsche Bank Championship shooting 66 and 65 to win by two shots. McIlroy is listed as the 5/1 favorite to win the BMW Championship with Jason Day the second choice at odds of just over 8/1. The top 30 finishers in this event will advance to the TOUR Championship in two weeks.
Top Contenders
McIlroy is the obvious favorite to win this week as he was excellent on the greens last week in Boston and he is the defending champion of the BMW. He recently changed his putter and his putting coach and the difference was obvious.
"I knew my game was in good shape, I just needed to do something with the putting," said McIlroy. "I found something. I still need to keep going with it, it's definitely not the finished article, but it's a big step in the right direction. I'm excited with how my game is and what I've found this week and hopefully I can keep it going for the next couple of tournaments, but ultimately into the Ryder Cup."
Day is the second choice in the betting at odds of about 10/1. He has four straight finishes in the top 15 but poor starts have hurt his chances of winning tournaments recently.
Johnson is the third choice in the betting this week at odds of 10/1. He played poorly in the third round last week and that one bad round cost him a chance to win.
Adam Scott has finished fourth in each of the last two tournaments and he leads the Tour in shots gained tee-to-green so it is all about the putter when it comes to Scott winning.
Jordan Spieth is next in the odds at 18/1 but he has yet to put a consistently good four rounds together in a long while. He will look really good at times and then it all falls apart.
Patrick Reed has finished in the top 13 in each of his last eight starts and he is now up to 8th in the latest world rankings. He is listed at odds of 25/1 this week.
Live Longshots
The field this week is extremely top-heavy so there is a lot of value on some really good players. Reed is very capable of getting the win and he is at 25/1. Rickie Fowler is 9th in the latest world rankings and he is listed at 34/1.
Daniel Berger finished second in this event a year ago and you can get him at odds of 60/1. Scott Piercy has been getting some late action from bettors but he is still available at odds of 60/1.
Handicapping Notes
It is helpful when handicapping this event to look back at the last time it was played at Crooked Stick which was in 2012. There are 29 players in the field this week that competed in 2012. McIlroy won the event while Phil Mickelson tied for 2nd. Other players who finished in the top 10 at Crooked Stick in 2012 were Dustin Johnson, Adam Scott and Ryan Moore.
A couple of top players that you might want to avoid based on their finishes four years ago are Fowler who tied for 41st and Kuchar who tied for 54th.
BMW Championship Odds at Bookmaker.eu
Rory McIlroy +525
Jason Day +869
Dustin Johnson +1019
Adam Scott +1675
Jordan Spieth +1823
Patrick Reed +2566
Justin Rose +2870
Rickie Fowler +3425
Gary Woodland +4025
Jimmy Walker +4050
Emiliano Grillo +4050
Louis Oosthuizen +4061
Sergio Garcia +4125
Hideki Matsuyama +4350
Brooks Koepka +4550
Phil Mickelson +4550
Paul Casey +4650
Ryan Moore +5250
Bubba Watson +5450
Daniel Berger +6050
Branden Grace +6050
Kevin Chappell +6050
Scott Piercy +6074
J.B. Holmes +6092
Brandt Snedeker +6550
Charl Schwartzel +6550
Russell Knox +7250
David Hearn +8050
Matt Kuchar +8050
Billy Horschel +8050
Justin Thomas +8050
Tony Finau +8050
David Lingmerth +9809
Jason Kokrak +10250
Kevin Na +10250
Chris Kirk +10250
Jhonattan Vegas +10250
Bill Haas +10250
Jamie Lovemark +10250
Kevin Kisner +10250
Marc Leishman +10250
Brian Harman +10250
Smylie Kaufman +10250
Si Woo Kim +11250
Zach Johnson +12550
Hudson Swafford +12550
James Hahn +12550
Roberto Castro +12550
Brian Stuard +12550
William McGirt +12550
Harris English +12550
Sean O'Hair +12550
Brendan Steele +12550
Ryan Palmer +12550
Jason Dufner +14250
Kyle Reifers +15250
Billy Hurley III +15250
Charley Hoffman +16250
Charles Howell III +16550
Aaron Baddeley +18250
Graeme McDowell +18550
Daniel Summerhays +18550
Luke Donald +20250
Ben Martin +20250
Fabian Gomez +20250
Jim Herman +20250
Kevin Streelman +20250
Jon Curran +20250
Vaughn Taylor +20250
Tournament Notes
Golf Predictions
There is no question that if McIlroy stays hot with his putter he could win again but Day won this event a year ago and he is overdue to win a tournament. I will take Day as my top choice at odds of +869. I will also take Justin Rose at +2870 and my two longshots are Hideki Matsuyama at +4350 and Phil Mickelson at +4550.
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