Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson are the top two betting choices to win the BMW Championship, which begins on Thursday. The FedExCup Playoffs are down to the final two events, with only the top 30 players in the standings advancing to next week’s Tour Championship. All of the top players in the world are in the field this week, but Spieth and Johnson are the only two listed at single-digit odds. We went 3-1 two weeks ago with the matchups in the Dell Technologies Championship. Let’s look at the odds and picks for this week’s BMW Championship.
BMW Championship Matchup Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jordan Spieth -120 vs. Dustin Johnson
Jordan Spieth -160 vs. Justin Thomas
Dustin Johnson -180 vs. Justin Thomas
Rickie Fowler -125 vs. Hideki Matsuyama
Rickie Fowler -115 vs. Jon Rahm
Jon Rahm -120 vs. Hideki Matsuyama
Jason Day -150 vs. Rory McIlroy
Jason Day -130 vs. Paul Casey
Paul Casey -131 vs. Rory McIlroy
Henrik Stenson -140 vs. Patrick Reed
Justin Rose -131 vs. Brooks Koepka
Matt Kuchar -120 vs. Marc Leishman
Louis Oosthuizen -120 vs. Sergio Garcia
Patrick Cantlay -130 vs. Daniel Berger
Kevin Chappell -115 vs. Phil Mickelson
Charley Hoffman -120 vs. Zach Johnson
Kevin Na -125 vs. Webb Simpson
Charl Schwartzel -115 vs. Francesco Molinari
Gary Woodland -140 vs. Kevin Kisner
Tony Finau -120 vs. Bill Haas
Jason Dufner -120 vs. Pat Perez
Russell Henley -120 vs. Kyle Stanley
Jhonattan Vegas -130 vs. Rafael Cabrera Bello
Keegan Bradley -125 vs. Xander Schauffele
Ian Poulter -130 vs. Brian Harman
BMW Championship Matchup Picks
Before we get to the picks there are a few things to consider. The last time Conway Farms hosted this event was in 2015. Conway Farms is a course where low scores are common, as Jim Furyk shot a 59 in the second round in 2013. Greens in regulation is the key stat to consider, as winners on this course usually have very good GIR numbers. Jason Day tied for 6th in greens in regulation when he won in 2015, while Zach Johnson tied for 3rd when he won at Conway Farms in 2013. Shots Gained: Tee to Green is another stat worth considering when you look at this week’s matchups. Conway Farms features Bentgrass greens that run about 12 on the Stimpmeter and 42 of the golfers in this week’s field of 70 have completed at least 72 holes at Conway Farms in either 2013 or 2015.
Jason Day -150 vs. Rory McIlroy
If you have followed these picks recently you know that I am going against Rory simply because he is hurt and it has worked out really well. I am doing it again this week. Day won at Conway Farms in 2015 and he has played better of late with four straight top 25 finishes. But this is more of a play against Rory who admitted he is playing hurt.
Paul Casey -131 vs. Rory McIlroy
This is the other McIlroy matchup, so I will take Casey with Rory playing hurt. It helps that Casey is playing really well, with top 15 finishes in his last six starts. He is seventh on the PGA Tour in adjusting scoring and he is third in our key stat of the week, greens in regulation.
Henrik Stenson -140 vs. Patrick Reed
Stenson has taken some time off so he comes in fresh, while Reed ranks poorly in our key stat of the week, as he is 169th on the PGA Tour in GIR. I will lay the price and take Stenson in this matchup.
Francesco Molinari -115 vs. Charl Schwartzel
This is the key stat of the week matchup, as Molinari is 47th in greens in regulation, while Schwartzel is 185th. I will take Molinari in this matchup.
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