BMW Championship Preview, Odds and Predictions

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Just two events remain in the FedExCup Playoffs, beginning with the BMW Championship this week at Conway Farm just outside of Chicago. A total of 70 players will tee it up in Chicago, with the top 30 in FedExCup points after Sunday advancing to next week’s Tour Championship. Jordan Spieth leads the standings and he is a slight favorite to win this week at odds of +650. Dustin Johnson is the second choice at odds of +750. The other top contenders are Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler and Hideki Matsuyama. Let’s look at this event, odds and predictions.

BMW Championship Odds

Jordan Spieth +650

Dustin Johnson +750

Jon Rahm +1150

Justin Thomas +1150

Jason Day +1250

Rickie Fowler +1250

Hideki Matsuyama +1550

Paul Casey +2050

Brooks Koepka +2550

Henrik Stenson +2550

Patrick Reed +2550

Rory McIlroy +2550

Justin Rose +3050

Marc Leishman +3050

Louis Oosthuizen +3550

Matt Kuchar +3550

Sergio Garcia +4550

Daniel Berger +5550

Patrick Cantlay +5550

Kevin Chappell +6050

Kevin Na +6550

Phil Mickelson +6550

Webb Simpson +7050

Charley Hoffman +7550

Zach Johnson +7550

Gary Woodland +8050

Odds Analysis

Jordan Spieth +650

Spieth has been in contention to win on a regular basis of late, as he nearly won The Northern Trust and then was just barely outshot by Justin Thomas in Boston. Spieth has already clinched a top five spot, so he doesn’t have to win this event and I think he is overvalued at these odds.

Dustin Johnson +750

Johnson has the distance off the tee to dominate golf courses. He is third in the FedExCup standings but he has clinched a top five spot for next week, so he doesn’t need to win this week. The difference between Spieth and Johnson is the power of Johnson and his ability to make every course look short. Johnson could definitely win but I do think his odds are a bit short.

Jon Rahm +1150

Rahm could be the player to target this week, as he needs to win this tournament to guarantee a top five spot heading into next week. He has eight top ten finishes this year and he has the distance to do well at Conway Farms.

Justin Thomas +1150

Thomas is having a fantastic season, as he is second in the FedExCup point’s race and probably a lock for Player of the Year. He could just take it easy this week, as he is locked into the top five so he may not be entirely focused on the win, but he is so good he can win at any time.

Rickie Fowler +1250

Fowler is 6th in FedExCup points so he needs to get past Rahm in the standings to have a chance to win the title next week. He always seems to be in contention and he has great stats, as he is second on The PGA Tour in adjusted scoring and second in strokes gained putting.

Hideki Matsuyama +1550

Matsuyama has not played nearly as well lately as he did a few months ago. He has fallen short in majors but he is still in the mix for the FedExCup title if he can stay in the top five and win next week. He played well at Conway Farms last year and he could contend for the win this week.

Henrik Stenson +2550

My longshot this week is Stenson who is in 26th place heading into this week. He won the Wyndham Championship and then finished in a tie for 17th at The Northern Trust before taking a week off. Stenson is ranked No. 7 in the world and I think he is getting overlooked this week.

Course: Conway Farms Golf Club is a par 71 that measures 7,208 yards. It opened in 1991 and first hosted a PGA Tour event in 2013.

Notes: Last year this event was held at Crooked Stick and it was Johnson holding off Paul Casey to get the win. Next year this tournament will be held at Aronimink GC just outside of Philadelphia, as the tournament will rotate between Conway Farms and other top courses.

TV Coverage: NBC and Golf Channel

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