The last event before the Masters is this week’s Houston Open where a stronger than expected field is assembled. Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler are listed as co-favorites at odds of +900, while Jordan Spieth is the third choice at odds of +1000. Six of the world’s top 20 players have chosen to play this week instead of taking the week off to get ready for the Masters. Let’s look at the odds and predictions for the Houston Open.
Houston Open Odds
Justin Rose +900
Rickie Fowler +900
Jordan Spieth +1000
Henrik Stenson +1200
Phil Mickelson +1200
Daniel Berger +2500
Luke List +2800
Tony Finau +2800
Rafa Cabrera Bello +3000
Russell Henley +3000
Byeong Hun An +3300
Matt Kuchar +3300
Charles Howell III +4000
Steve Stricker +4000
Jason Dufner +5000
Thomas Pieters +5000
Emiliano Grillo +5500
J.B. Holmes +5500
Jamie Lovemark +5500
Keegan Bradley +5500
Brandt Snedeker +6600
Chez Reavie +6600
Chris Kirk +6600
Jason Kokrak +6600
Shubhankar Sharma +6600
Martin Kaymer +7000
Bill Haas +8000
Bud Cauley +8000
Harris English +8000
Ian Poulter +8000
James Hahn +8000
Jhonattan Vegas +8000
Patrick Rodgers +8000
Ryan Palmer +8000
Scott Piercy +8000
Sean OHair +8000
Odds Analysis
Justin Rose +900
Rose has three top 10 finishes this season but I think he is overvalued as the favorite. He finished in a tie for 15th in this event last year. He is definitely a contender, but I think there is better value elsewhere.
Rickie Fowler +900
Rickie seemed to be in contention in every tournament a year ago, but he has not played as well in 2018. He has done well at Houston in the past with three top 10 finishes, but it is hard to make a case for taking him this week at this price.
Jordan Spieth +1000
I will sound like a broken record, but I am going to say it again that Spieth is overvalued at these odds. He simply doesn’t look like the same player as he was a year ago. He is constantly questioning his shots and his putting is just not that great. I am not taking him at these odds.
Henrik Stenson +1200
I think Stenson has some value at these odds, as he has two runner-up finishes in the past at Houston and a tie for third. He comes in playing well as he finished fourth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I think you can make a case that he should be favored this week.
Phil Mickelson +1200
I don’t really like Mickelson this week. He has said in the past that he tends to treat this tournament as a tune-up for Augusta and will practice certain shots. Mickelson is playing well, but I just can’t take him to win this week considering he is focused on next week’s Masters.
Daniel Berger +2500
Berger has played this event well in the past with a tie for 25th, a tie for 5th and a 5th place finish in the last three years. I think he has a lot of value at these odds and that he is a live longshot.
Luke List +2800
List has to win this week to make the Masters and I think it could happen. He is third on the PGA Tour in distance and he is top 25 in strokes gained around the green. He is a live longshot this week.
Rafa Cabrera Bello +3000
My other longshot is Cabrera Bello who is first on the PGA Tour this season in strokes gained approaching the green. He finished fourth in this event two years ago and he is playing well this year.
Course: The Golf Club of Houston is a par 72 that measures 7,441 yards. It is thought of as a course that is similar to Augusta which is why more players have chosen to play this event recently. This event has seen a player clinch a Master berth in four of the last five years, with D.A. Points winning in 2013, Matt Jones in 2014, Jim Herman in 2016 and Henley last year. 23 of the previous 72 Houston Open tournaments have gone to a playoff.
TV Coverage: NBC and Golf Channel
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