Jordan Spieth is favored to win the TOUR Championship, which begins on Thursday in Atlanta. If any of the top five players in the standings win this event they will win the FedExCup. Those players are Spieth, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Marc Leishman and Jon Rahm. We are coming off a great week at the BMW Championship, as we went 4-0 with the matchups. Let’s look at the odds and picks for this week’s TOUR Championship.
TOUR Championship Matchup Odds at BookMaker.eu
Dustin Johnson -121 vs. Jordan Spieth
Rickie Fowler -122 vs. Jordan Spieth
Rickie Fowler -117 vs. Dustin Johnson
Jon Rahm -158 vs. Justin Thomas
Jason Day -138 vs. Justin Thomas
Jon Rahm -131 vs. Jason Day
Paul Casey -143 vs. Justin Rose
Marc Leishman -144 vs. Justin Rose
Paul Casey -180 vs. Marc Leishman
Hideki Matsuyama -125 vs. Brooks Koepka
Sergio Garcia -116 vs. Matt Kuchar
Kevin Chappell -136 vs. Patrick Cantlay
Webb Simpson -155 vs. Patrick Reed
Tony Finau -118 vs. Charley Hoffman
Gary Woodland -134 vs. Daniel Berger
Pat Perez -118 vs. Jason Dufner
Russell Henley -144 vs. Xander Schauffele
Kyle Stanley -128 vs. Kevin Kisner
Adam Hadwin -119 vs. Brian Harman
TOUR Championship Matchup Picks
Before we get to the picks there are a few things to consider. The East Lake Golf Club is a par 70 that played just under par last season. The scoring average a year ago was 69.615. Bogey avoidance is our key stat to consider this week, as the last three winners of this event finished 4th, 1st and 1st in bogey avoidance. We don’t have as many matchups to choose from this week since there are only 30 golfers in the field and as I say many times in sports, it is oftentimes very difficult to follow up a great week with another great week. Although I have five matchups this week, I am treading lightly after a perfect 4-0 last week.
Justin Rose +114 vs. Marc Leishman
I am a little bit surprised that Rose is the underdog in this matchup but oddsmakers are obviously looking at what Leishman did last week when he dominated at Conway Farms. It is very difficult to repeat two great performances and he hasn’t seen this course since 2009. Rose really likes to play on this course, as he has two seconds in his last four starts at East Lake. I will take the plus price on Rose in this matchup against Leishman.
Gary Woodland -134 vs. Daniel Berger
Woodland has finished in the top 10 in his last two appearances at East Lake, while Berger has not finished in the Top 30 in any of his last four tournaments and is fortunate just to be playing this week. I will lay the small price and take Woodland in this matchup.
Webb Simpson -155 vs. Patrick Reed
Simpson has two top five finishes at East Lake in four trips, while Reed has really struggled on this course. He has not shot under par in his last eight rounds on this course. I will lay the price and take Simpson in this matchup.
Hideki Matsuyama -125 vs. Brooks Koepka
Matsuyama hasn’t been that great in the playoffs but he has a big edge in our key stat of the week, as he is tied for 8th on the PGA Tour in bogey avoidance, while Koepka is 159th. I will lay the short price in this matchup and take Matsuyama.
Pat Perez -118 vs. Jason Dufner
This is another one where we have a big advantage in bogey avoidance numbers, as Perez ranks 19th on the PGA Tour, while Dufner is 132nd. I will lay the short price and take Perez in this matchup.
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