The second of golf’s four majors, the U.S. Open, gets underway on Thursday, with World No. 1 and defending champion Dustin Johnson listed as the favorite. This year’s tournament is being held at Erin Hills, just northwest of Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The course has very few trees, difficult rough and a lot of bunkers, so it may have a links feel to it. The course is 7,693 yards, the second-longest for a U.S. Open, so the long hitters should have an advantage. Johnson is the favorite at odds of +625, while Rory McIlroy is the second choice at odds of +1215.
U.S. Open Odds
Dustin Johnson +625
Rory McIlroy +1215
Jordan Spieth +1483
Jason Day +1527
Rickie Fowler +1617
Jon Rahm +1821
Henrik Stenson +2263
Justin Rose +2684
Sergio Garcia +2814
Hideki Matsuyama +3067
Adam Scott +3067
Justin Thomas +3897
Paul Casey +4050
Alex Noren +4050
Thomas Pieters +4050
Brooks Koepka +4050
Branden Grace +5250
Francesco Molinari +6050
Kevin Kisner +6050
Matt Kuchar +6469
Louis Oosthuizen +6550
Kevin Chappell +6550
Charl Schwartzel +6550
Daniel Berger +6850
Jason Dufner +7050
Bubba Watson +8050
Shane Lowry +8050
Marc Leishman +8050
Martin Kaymer +8050
Rafael Cabrera-Bello +8550
JB Holmes +8550
Patrick Reed +8550
Lucas Glover +10250
Bernd Wiesberger +10250
Billy Horschel +10250
Matthew Fitzpatrick +12550
Brandt Snedeker +12550
Byeong Hun An +12550
Emiliano Grillo +12550
Russell Henley +12550
Steve Stricker +12550
Lee Westwood +13550
Si Woo Kim +14354
Zach Johnson +15000
Sean O'Hair +15250
Keegan Bradley +15250
Stewart Cink +15250
Jamie Lovemark +15250
Daniel Summerhays +15250
George Coetzee +15250
Tyrrell Hatton +15250
Adam Hadwin +15250
Martin Laird +15250
Harris English +15250
Scott Piercy +15250
Brendan Steele +15250
Bill Haas +16250
William McGirt +16250
Gary Woodland +16550
Webb Simpson +17550
Haotong Li +18250
Ross Fisher +18550
Tommy Fleetwood +18550
Wesley Bryan +20250
Pat Perez +20250
David Lingmerth +20250
Alexander Levy +20250
Peter Uihlein +20250
Jimmy Walker +20250
Charley Hoffman +20250
Bud Cauley +20250
Andrew Johnston +20250
Graeme McDowell +22550
J.T. Poston +25250
Jason Kokrak +25250
Jim Furyk +25250
Cheng-Tsung Pan +25250
Kevin Na +25250
Bryson DeChambeau +25250
Odds Analysis
Dustin Johnson +625
No player has won the U.S. Open in consecutive years since Curtis Strange in 1988-89. Only six defending champions since 1991 have finished higher than 30th the next year. Johnson might be able to buck history, as he has the length to overwhelm this course but there is no question he is overvalued at these odds.
Rory McIlroy +1215
This will be the first event for Rory since he re-injured his ribs at THE PLAYERS. He finished 35th in that event. Maybe Rory can win without a lot of prep time, as he has the talent but I think he is a bit overvalued.
Jordan Spieth +1483
Spieth has been one of those golfers, along with Brooks Koepka who I have a love/hate relationship with. When I back them they disappoint me but when I go against them they play well. I am still not sold Spieth has solved all of his problems and he will probably be a go-against for me this week.
Jason Day +1527
Day is starting to play well again, as his mother is doing better and his focus is once again on golf. Don’t forget that it wasn’t that long ago that Day was the top ranked player in the world. If Day gets going with his putter I think he can win this event and there is a lot of value on him at these odds.
Rickie Fowler +1617
Fowler missed the cut last week but he always seems to contend in majors and it should not be long before he finally wins one.
Jon Rahm +1821
Rahm missed the cut a couple of weeks ago and then he took last week off. The break may help him and he should be ready to go this week. He had been in contention for wins virtually every week before his missed cut.
Henrik Stenson +2263
It would not be a surprise to see Stenson in contention on Sunday. He won the Open Championship and all indications are that the U.S. Open at Erin Hills is going to play a lot like a tournament in Britain.
Paul Casey +4050
There is a lot to like about Casey, as he has finished in the Top 22 in his last five events. He always seems to play well in big events and he does well on links courses.
Louis Oosthuizen +6550
If you are looking for a longshot then Oosthuizen is worth a shot. He almost always plays well on links course and he won at St. Andrews a few years ago. He is long off the tee and he has the ability to get hot with the putter.
Course: Erin Hills is a par 72 that measures 7,693 yards. It opened in 2006 and was designed by Michael Hurdzan, Dana Fry and Ron Whitten. The course has more of a links layout, as it has virtually no trees, dunes, bunkers and fescue grasses. When the wind kicks up it will play a lot like a links course. "I think the course is solid enough,'' said Steve Stricker to ESPN "The conditions are going to be incredible because nobody's played it since September, other than a few groups. I think the course will hold its own.''
TV Coverage: FOX and FS1
Notes: The winning score in six of the last 12 U.S. Opens has been par or higher. Unless the wind kicks up at Erin Hills, the winning score this week will be under par. Erin Hills can be difficult but without a lot of wind, the best players in the world are going to be under par on this course, simply because of their length. Oddsmakers agree with me, as odds on the winner finishing under par have been set at -350. And even at that number I think it is a steal, as the odds should be at least -600.
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