Matt Kuchar is a lukewarm favorite to win the Valero Texas Open which begins on Thursday in San Antonio. Most of the world’s top players are taking another week off after the Masters, with only five of the top 25 in the latest world rankings in the field. Kuchar is the favorite at odds of +1650, while defending champion Charley Hoffman and Brooks Koepka are each listed at +1850. The highest ranked player in the field is Patrick Reed at No. 15, but Reed is not getting a lot of respect from the oddsmakers, as he is listed at +3000.
Valero Texas Open Odds
Matt Kuchar +1650
Charley Hoffman +1850
Brooks Koepka +1850
Branden Grace +2250
Adam Hadwin +2250
Ryan Moore +2250
Brendan Steele +2250
Jimmy Walker +2250
Billy Horschel +2800
Kevin Chappell +3000
Patrick Reed +3000
Luke Donald +3250
Ollie Schniederjans +3500
Ryan Palmer +3500
Tony Finau +3500
Zach Johnson +4500
J.J. Spaun +4500
Kevin Na +4500
Luke List +4500
Byeong Hun An +5000
Daniel Summerhays +5250
Keegan Bradley +5500
Martin Laird +5500
Sung Kang +5500
Graeme McDowell +6000
Ian Poulter +6000
Jhonattan Vegas +6000
Soren Kjeldsen +6250
Anirban Lahiri +6500
Chris Kirk +6500
Harold Varner III +7500
Bryson Dechambeau +8500
Bud Cauley +8500
Danny Lee +8500
Jason Kokrak +8500
Jamie Lovemark +8500
Nick Watney +8550
Cameron Smith +9000
J.T. Poston +9000
Kevin Streelman +10000
Odds Analysis
Matt Kuchar +1650
I am not sure why Kuchar is favored, as he hasn’t put four good rounds together in a long time. He has played great on Sunday’s lately but it hasn’t mattered, as he has been too far behind. He does have three top 15 finishes since 2012 in this event but I am looking elsewhere.
Charley Hoffman +1850
I think Hoffman should be favored this week and I don’t think it is that close. He has played really well this season, he loves playing in San Antonio, and he is the defending champion. You could almost see last week’s missed cut coming, as he was out of gas but he should be set for this week. Hoffman is my top pick this week.
Brooks Koepka +1850
Bettors have taken a liking to Koepka this week, as his odds have dropped to under +2000. He did play well at the Masters, finishing in a tie for 11th and the field this week is not that strong.
Ryan Moore +2250
He played this course in 2012 and tied for 8th but has not been back since. He was off last week after finishing in a tie for 9th at the Masters. He might be a contender this week.
Brendan Steele +2250
You can make a decent case for Steele winning this week, as he won this event in 2011. He had made the cut in 16 straight PGA Tour events and he is fourth on Tour in bogey avoidance.
Jimmy Walker +2250
The local favorite will be Walker who won this event in 2015. He led the field at the Masters in one-putt percentage and he tied for fourth in scrambling. I am still not sold he has completely solved his driving issues and that is a concern on this course.
Kevin Chappell +3000
Here is a horse for a course pick, as Chappell tied for 2nd in San Antonio in 2011, tied for 15th in 2013 and tied for fourth last year. He comes in playing well, as he tied for 7th at the Masters.
Patrick Reed +3000
I think Reed is undervalued this week at these odds. He finished second last year and he is the highest ranked player in the field.
Course: TPC San Antonio (AT&T Oaks) is a par 72 that measures 7,435 yards. It was designed by Greg Norman with some help from Sergio Garcia and features narrow fairways, deep bunkers and some nasty rough. Most people believe the course is tougher than the nearby Canyons course that was designed by Pete Dye.
TV Coverage: CBS and Golf Channel
Notes: Last year it was Hoffman holding off Reed to win the title. Hoffman finished at 12-under par and he needed a birdie putt on the 18th to get past Reed by a single shot. Hoffman has done really well in his career on this course, as he has ten top 15 finishes. If Hoffman can get the win this week he would become the third player to win in back-to-back years at San Antonio, as Justin Leonard did it in 2000-2001 and Zach Johnson did it in 2008-2009.
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