Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia and Rory McIlroy headline the field for this week’s Valspar Championship in Florida. Spieth is ranked No. 4 in the world, Rose is ranked No. 5, while Garcia and McIlroy are ranked No. 11 and No. 12 respectively. Also in the field this week is Tiger Woods who is listed at odds of +2400. Let’s look at the odds and predictions for the Valspar Championship that begins on Thursday.
Valspar Championship Odds
Jordan Spieth +700
Rory McIlroy +1200
Justin Rose +1600
Sergio Garcia +1600
Henrik Stenson +1800
Paul Casey +2000
Tiger Woods +2400
Tony Finau +2400
Adam Hadwin +2900
Byeong Hun An +4000
Ryan Moore +4000
Webb Simpson +4000
Adam Scott +4500
Gary Woodland +4500
Luke List +4500
Cameron Smith +5000
Matthew Fitzpatrick +5000
Charl Schwartzel +5500
Chez Reavie +5500
Kevin Na +5500
Matt Kuchar +5500
Patrick Reed +5500
Jason Dufner +6000
Louis Oosthuizen +6000
Ollie Schniederjans +6000
Branden Grace +6500
Brandt Snedeker +7000
Kevin Streelman +7000
Martin Laird +7000
Steve Stricker +7000
Zach Johnson +7000
Charles Howell III +8000
Ross Fisher +8000
Russell Knox +8000
Bryson DeChambeau +8500
Charley Hoffman +8500
Chesson Hadley +8500
Kyle Stanley +9500
Odds Analysis
Jordan Spieth +700
I say this every week and will continue to say it until he wins, I think Spieth is overvalued. He has still not shown me he has figured out his putting problems. He has putted well at Copperhead in the past, but I am just not sold that Spieth has his problems corrected and I won’t take him to win until he shows me differently.
Rory McIlroy +1200
I think Rory is a very good player, but he simply doesn’t win enough to be considered a good bet. He has never played this course competitively before, but he could be in the mix. I just can’t take him to win at these odds.
Justin Rose +1600
I think you can make a case that Rose should be favored over Spieth and McIlroy. Rose has actually won more than both players recently and his iron game is well suited to Cooperhead. I think there is great value on Rose at +1600.
Sergio Garcia +1600
There is a chance that Sergio could be a late withdrawal, as his wife is due with their first child later this month. He will probably go in this event, but I don’t know that he will be entirely focused on golf until after she gives birth, so I am going against Sergio.
Henrik Stenson +1800
I think there is a lot of value in taking Stenson to win this week. This is a course where Stenson can use his 3-wood a lot and he is one of the best in the game with that club. He is a definite ball striker and this course demands precision.
Paul Casey +2000
Casey is a golfer who always seems to be on the leaderboard, but rarely wins. He definitely has the type of game to do well on this course, as he is patient and a good ball striker, but again, he rarely wins tournaments.
Tiger Woods +2400
I have to mention Tiger because a lot of people will bet on him, but I won’t be one of them. Tiger played pretty well at PGA National where he didn’t have to use his driver much. He might contend for a Top 25 finish this week, but he still hasn’t shown his game is back to the level where he can beat any of the top players in the world yet.
Webb Simpson +4000
My longshot this week is Simpson, who disappointed last week in Mexico. Simpson should do well in Florida and I expect a nice bounce back week from him.
Course: Innisbrook Resort hosts the event this week and it is the Copperhead course where the players will play and it is known for the “Snake Pit,” a closing stretch of three holes that ranked No. 4 last year as the toughest closing stretch of three holes on the PGA Tour. The Copperhead course is a par 71 that measures 7,340 yards. The course is lined with trees and features two par 5’s that can be reached in two. The “Snake Pit” features two tough par 4’s to go along with a 215 yard par 3.
TV Coverage: NBC and Golf Channel
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