The Dallas Stars have a really good chance to punch their ticket into the second round of the NHL playoffs on Friday night when they take on the Minnesota Wild, a team firmly up against the ropes seemingly ready to put up the white flag.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Stars shouldn't lose this series from here. They fought back from down 1-0 and 2-1 in Game 4 to win and take a 3-1 series lead, and now, they're going to surely be massive favorites at home. Odds have it, they’ll settle somewhere around -190 or so, right in between the -175 they were lined at for Game 1 and the -204 they were set at two nights later for Game 2.
GOALIE REPORT
Once again, we've seen another team make a goalie change in the playoffs. Dallas had been starting Kari Lehtonen, but Lindy Ruff gave him a very short hook indeed. Lehtonen allowed four goals in Game 3 and was immediately pulled for Game 4, a rough break for a man who allowed just one puck to get behind him in 120 minutes on home ice.
In fairness, Ruff stayed consistent with what he said at the outset of these playoffs. He expected both Niemi and Lehtonen to see time on the ice, and it'll end up being a great mystery who will be in net on Friday night. Niemi is the favorite after his Game 4 win, especially after he turned aside all 14 shots he faced in the third period.
Devan Dubnyk had a really good season on a very mediocre team, but he's overmatched here by the Dallas offense. He's only got a .888 save percentage through the first four games of this series, and though he hasn't had any dreadful games, when you've got such a poor offense in front of you, posting a 2.80 GAA is really the end of the world.
LIVE BETTING
Injuries have played a crucial part in this series for Minnesota. Thomas Vanek and Zach Parise still haven't stepped foot on the ice in the playoffs yet, and there's a good chance that neither one is even going to make the trip back to Dallas for Game 5.
These two men combined for 43 goals in the regular season. In a related story, Minnesota has scored just eight goals in this series, one of which went into an empty net, and it scored just one goal in two games in Dallas last week.
Tyler Seguin is expected to try to give it a go in Game 5 after suffering an Achilles injury which has caused him to play in just one game in this series. If Seguin is back, the rich will only get richer, as he scored 33 goals with 40 assists in the regular season.
QUICK PICK
The Stars were easily the better team in this series every step of the way, and they aren't losing here on their home ice in all likelihood against the Wild. Dallas has won eight straight dating back to the regular season here at the AAC, and the Wild just looked hapless in the two games played here last week.
Even if Parise and Vanek both made miracle recoveries and played, there's only so much the Wild can have left psychologically. They were every bit as good as Dallas in Game 4, and not only did they squander those two leads we mentioned earlier, but they outshot their foe 14-2 in the third and just couldn't get one home.
Don't be surprised if this NHL game ends without Minnesota finding the back of the net no matter which goalie is in the pipes for the Stars.
NHL Odds: Stars 3, Wild 0
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