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For the time being, Joonas Donskoi has made himself a hero. He scored the goal that brought the San Jose Sharks back within a game of the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Stanley Cup Finals, but live bettors will have a hard time trusting what the Western Conference champs are bringing to the table ahead of Game 4.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Sharks were -152 favorites in Game 3, but they really had to have this one. A loss, and the series was effectively going to be over with.
That said, after a third straight game in which Pittsburgh looked the part of the better team on the ice, we're just not sure the Sharks are going to be justified as big favorites in Game 4. They'll still be laying lumber for sure, but expect to see that -152 margin slip to more like -130 or so.
After a third straight game in this series which failed to exceed five goals, it might be time to bring this total down to 5 from where it's sat every step of the way at 5.5.
KEY STAT
San Jose only managed 26 shots on goal again in Game 3, and it was very fortunate to get out of that game alive. However, it's not the shots which hit the target, rather the shots which were blocked which made all the difference.
Unofficially, the Penguins had 39 blocks in Game 3, and that's the type of defense and selling out it's going to take to put this series away. It felt like every other shift, Kris Letang was down on the ice blocking a shot, and if that's the way he and his mates are going to end up playing in this game, live bettors need to take note and realize that this series is probably closer to being 3-1 than 2-2.
SPECIAL TEAMS REPORT
Once again, the tide of this series changed on a power play. Technically, Joel Ward's third period goal came at even strength, but all of the momentum was built up over the course of the four minutes Nick Bonino spent in the penalty box for a high stick. Pittsburgh has done a remarkable job staying out of the sin bin in this series, though there has to be a wonder whether the refs have just shut up shop.
Game 3 was a much more physical affair than Games 1 and 2 were, yet there were only a total of three infractions called for the whole game. This lack of calls is really playing into the hands of the Penguins, and considering the fact that all three games of this series have been decided with a winning goal either in overtime or in the last three minutes of regulation, every advantage a team can get will certainly help.
That said, the Pens haven't been so good on the kill to make us believe they can fend off the Sharks on the road for four or five penalties. If the refs all of a sudden start to get a little whistle-happy, that could open this game up in a huge way and provide San Jose with the opportunity it needs to level this thing up and make it a best-of-three series.
Stanley Cup odds at BookMaker.eu
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