Remember the name Curlin? The "superhorse" has produced a ton of offspring in recent years, and perhaps his best foal will be on display at the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes on Saturday.
ODDS ANALYSIS
1: Danette ( 12/1 )
2: Curalina ( 7/5 )
3: Lovely Maria ( 5/1 )
4: I'm a Chatterbox ( 5/2 )
5: Embellish the Lace ( 10/1 )
6: Include Betty ( 8/1 )
7: Sweetgrass ( 12/1 )
Clearly, there are only three fillies whom anyone believes is going to win the Alabama Stakes, which is going to be trifecta prices awfully dull if some combination of Curalina, Lovely Maria and I'm a Chatterbox end up in the money. Beyond that, there is only one filly at less than 10 to 1, that being Include Betty. Sweetgrass, Embellish the Lace and Danette round out the field as longshots.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
Even though Curlaina is going to have a lot of name-following, especially knowing that she was an odds-on favorite and won via disqualification at the Coaching Club American Oaks last month, we prefer the filly that was taken down from the top spot in that run.
I'm a Chatterbox rightfully won that race, and she posted a 95 Beyer Speed Rating in doing so. That's the fourth time in her last five runs she has reached at least 95 on the Beyer ratings, and if she keeps that up in this one, she'll have a great chance to reach the finish line first.
Florent Geroux might not be the most known jockey ever, but he has a history of really doing well on this track at Saratoga, and he is only successful jockey this horse has ever known. It's a good combination to have, and I'm a Chatterbox will surely be off and running early in the Alabama Stakes.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
We're really not all that sure why Lovely Maria is being disrespected here so much. Yes, she's another one of these fillies with a no-name jockey in Kerwin Clark, but she won the Kentucky Oaks back in May, and she had won the Ashland Handicap prior to that.
Sure, Lovely Maria flattened out in her last race, the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks, and we'll admit that it is a bit bothersome that she had such a bad day in a Grade 3 race, one in which she was a 1 to 5 favorite. However, everyone has a bad day at the office, and if you take that one bad run out, what's left might be the best three-year old filly in the world.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
This is quite a long race at 1 1/4 miles, and none of these fillies have had much experience at this distance. The reason why we love the price on Lovely Maria so much is because she won the Kentucky Oaks and the Ashland going away at 1 1/8 and 1 1/16 miles, proving that she has more left in the tank if need be.
I'm a Chatterbox and Curalina just haven't run enough for our money. Curalina, in particular, only really has two notable races under her belt, and though she’s looked great and has had great breeding, Curlin's offspring haven't exactly been the greatest in the Sport of Kings.
We do think that this will end up being the trifecta, but putting Lovely Maria on top will at least make the prices worthwhile.
Play Lovely Maria to win the Alabama Stakes
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