There aren't many fantastic days of racing at Arlington Park any longer, but the day of the Arlington Million Stakes is always a tremendous draw. The only day of Grade 1 racing of the year at the Illinois suburb track takes place on Saturday, as the best turfers in the world try to claim the track's biggest prize at the Arlington Million.
ODDS ANALYSIS
1: Up With the Birds 12/1
2: Slumber 7/2
3: Bookrunner 15/1
4: Big Blue Kitten 3/1
5: Wake Forest 12/1
6: Legendary 15/1
7: The Pizza Man 10/1
8: Quiet Force 15/1
9: Shining Copper 30/1
10: Triple Threat 6/1
11: Maverick Wave 8/1
12: Elleval 30/1
13: Belgian Bill 30/1
This field of 13 is a tremendous one, and the fact that there are so many colts who came from different corners of the earth makes it all the tougher to handicap. The oddsmakers don't know what to do with ponies like Maverick Wave or Belgian Bill who have never run on this side of the pond in their careers, which is why it is really tough to line a favorite.
Sure, Maverick Wave has six wins in his 13 career races, including three wins in four runs this year, but Slumber remains the favorite at 7 to 2 for the Arlington Million.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
Slumber has been working out well of late, and he’s been run up against some really good fields. We're not sure he deserves to be the favorite, but his Beyer Speed Ratings are second to none for the most part of late, and the degree of competition he's faced is amazing.
Still, it's tough to take a 7 to 2 price on a colt which has just five wins in 22 career races and one win in five races thus far this year, even if he does have three places to go with that victory.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
Quiet Force won the prep race for the Arlington Million last month, the Arlington Handicap. That wasn't against a fantastic field, but he was a comfortable winner, starting on the pace and finishing in front of the field.
He and The Pizza Man are the only two horses to have won on this track this year, but Quiet Force has had the better career against the better fields as we see it, making him our choice of these two.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The international horses are the wild cards in this field. Maverick Wave and Triple Threat are both going to be in the running in this one, but we still prefer the colts who have been running here in Arlington instead.
There's something to be said about a horse who is familiar with the grounds, and though the international ponies do tend to be relatively successful here in the United States, it's still tough to pick out which one of these five who hail from overseas might do well.
Instead, we prefer the 10 to 1 and 15 to 1 prices on The Pizza Man and Quiet Force respectively, and we wouldn't be stunned if either won this race. Again, we prefer Quiet Force, but we think there's a big payout waiting in the Arlington Million.
Play Quiet Force to win the Arlington Million Stakes
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