The Belmont Stakes lost some of its luster when Nyquist was beaten in the Preakness Stakes and proceeded to pull out of contention for the prospective rematch with Exaggerator. However, as bettors, we still see opportunity abound in the third leg of the Triple Crown, especially with a whopping 13 horses entering the field to run the mile and a half marathon at Belmont Park.
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BELMONT STAKES STARTING POSTS AND MORNING LINE ODDS
1: Governor Malibu ( 12/1 )
2: Destin ( 6/1 )
3: Cherry Wine ( 8/1 )
4: Suddenbreakingnews ( 10/1 )
5: Stradivari ( 5/1 )
6: Gettysburg ( 30/1 )
7: Seeking the Soul ( 30/1 )
8: Forever d'Oro ( 30/1 )
9: Trojan Nation ( 30/1 )
10: Lani ( 20/1 )
11: Exaggerator ( 9/5 )
12: Brody's Cause ( 20/1 )
13: Creator ( 10/1 )
BELMONT STAKES ANALYSIS AND QUICK PICK
The first thing you really have to do when you're betting the Belmont this year is determining whether you're on Team Exaggerator or not. There's only two ways to bet this race. You're either putting Exaggerator on top of all of your exotics, or you're leaving him off the board entirely.
After watching the $2.00 trifecta pay just $146.20 at the Preakness in a race where the favorite finished third and the second place finisher went off at 17 to 1, we're not interested in backing a horse priced anywhere near an odds-on favorite as Exaggerator is.
We recognize the fact that we're very likely going to be completely off base in our logic, but if we're going to bet a triple here, we're going to do so with a combination which will pay out big bucks.
So bear with us as we draw up what we deem to be a very plausible ride through the Belmont Stakes.
Gettysburg is sure to get out to the lead of the race, as he's really got the only early speed alongside Destin and Stradivari, the latter two of which we're taking out of the equation merely for a lack of value. It's clear that Gettysburg will lead for at least the first half mile, if not the first mile before he starts to drift off as he did at the Arkansas Derby when he finished fifth after leading the whole race.
Exaggerator's positioning is going to be crucial to the rest of the field. He's going to be right in the center of it all as he was at the Preakness in all likelihood, and we have to hope that he makes his move too early and runs out of gas at the wire.
If that's the case, the door should open up for some of the deep closers. There are plenty of them in this field. Cherry Wine would make the most sense, but we're looking for more value than that. Cherry Wine might've finished second at the Preakness, but he was also third to Brody's Cause in the Blue Grass Stakes and fourth at the Rebel Stakes, a race in which Creator finished third.
The really deep closers of value in our eyes are Suddenbreakingnews, who came up from 19th to 5th at the Kentucky Derby, Forever d'Oro, who has arguably the best breeding in this field with a pair of Belmont Stakes winners in his two-generation lineage, Lani, who had as good of a close at the Preakness as any horse in the field, and Brody's Cause, a horse who has shown all sorts of potential when he's been able to stay out of harm's way.
The common thread here? We're dealing with nothing but double-digit dogs. Forever d'Oro is our favorite of the bunch even though he's never run in anything but a maiden race in his career. If you've got the stomach for the big bet which could result in the massive reward, we recommend tri-boxing 4-6-8-10-12.
Horse Racing Odds: Forever d'Oro (8) over Suddenbreakingnews (4) and Gettysburg (6)
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